A new Virginia poll from Public Policy Polling has 16% of its sample having already voted. Among those, Obama has a huge lead, 63%-36%.
Overall, Obama leads by 6 points, 52%-46%.
Get out and vote!
Showing posts with label Virginia Presidential polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Virginia Presidential polls. Show all posts
Monday, November 03, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Obama Up Two In Virginia In Conservative Mason-Dixon Poll
While most polls have shown Obama leading in Virginia, the Mason-Dixon poll has consistently--until now--given McCain a small lead.
No longer. In today's Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia likely voters, taken over Oct. 20-21, Obama has a small--but statistically insignificant--lead, 47%-45%. In the last Mason-Dixon poll of Commonwealth voters, at the beginning of October, McCain led 48%-45%.
We note that the M-D poll sample is 50/50 between men and women. Men somewhat favored McCain, whereas women somewhat favored Obama. Recent patterns in Virginia--and throughout the nation--are that women tend to turnout and vote in greater proportions than men. If that's true, the poll probably underestimates Obama's support.
As far as we can tell, M-D only calls landline phones. Again, that will underestimate Obama's support to some degree, because younger people are much more likely to live in households with no landline, using only cellphones.
By the same token, the M-D poll is useful, because we ought to think of Virginia as a close race and make sure to get everyone to the polls by election day.
No longer. In today's Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia likely voters, taken over Oct. 20-21, Obama has a small--but statistically insignificant--lead, 47%-45%. In the last Mason-Dixon poll of Commonwealth voters, at the beginning of October, McCain led 48%-45%.
We note that the M-D poll sample is 50/50 between men and women. Men somewhat favored McCain, whereas women somewhat favored Obama. Recent patterns in Virginia--and throughout the nation--are that women tend to turnout and vote in greater proportions than men. If that's true, the poll probably underestimates Obama's support.
As far as we can tell, M-D only calls landline phones. Again, that will underestimate Obama's support to some degree, because younger people are much more likely to live in households with no landline, using only cellphones.
By the same token, the M-D poll is useful, because we ought to think of Virginia as a close race and make sure to get everyone to the polls by election day.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Maybe Virginia Is Obama Country
More new polls in Virginia have Obama with a comfortable lead:
Survey USA: Obama 51% McCain 45%
Rasmussen: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Indeed, Obama has led in every poll of the Old Dominion since the beginning of October--that's nine polls by six survey organizations, three of which have Obama up by double digits.
Maybe this is for real!
Survey USA: Obama 51% McCain 45%
Rasmussen: Obama 54% McCain 44%
Indeed, Obama has led in every poll of the Old Dominion since the beginning of October--that's nine polls by six survey organizations, three of which have Obama up by double digits.
Maybe this is for real!
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Obama Lead In Virginia In Double Digits?
According to a CNN/Time poll, Obama's lead in the Old Dominion is 10 points:
Obama: 53%
McCain: 43%
Need we state the obvious? If Obama were to win Va. by that kind of margin, this would be a landslide.
Obama: 53%
McCain: 43%
Need we state the obvious? If Obama were to win Va. by that kind of margin, this would be a landslide.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Old Dominion Poll: Obama By Six
Survey USA has Obama up six points over McCain in the Old Dominion, 51%-45%. (A little surprising: in this poll, 14% of blacks favored McCain; could be a small sample size.)
(Warner is up 57-34 in the same poll.)
Also, ABC/Washington Post has Obama up by three points.
(Warner is up 57-34 in the same poll.)
Also, ABC/Washington Post has Obama up by three points.
Monday, September 08, 2008
McCain Up By Two In The Commonwealth
McCain seems to be enjoying a surge in the polls post-convention. Two polls came out today with figures for Virginia, both with McCain leading by two points. Clearly, the Commonwealth remains in play.
1. In the Rasmussen poll, McCain leads 49%-47%.
2. In the Survey USA poll, it's also McCain by 49%-47%. Survey USA noted that Sarah Palin's selection as McCain's running mate had essentially no impact on women voters compared to the last poll, taken before her selection.
Neither candidate has held a statistically significant lead over the other in any Virginia poll we've seen for at least the past three months. Turn-out will be key--we were happy that a couple of Obama canvassers stopped by the other afternoon. They had a sophisticated print-out of voters and were getting information on who their likely supporters will be and how committed they are to getting to the polls--a good ground game!
1. In the Rasmussen poll, McCain leads 49%-47%.
2. In the Survey USA poll, it's also McCain by 49%-47%. Survey USA noted that Sarah Palin's selection as McCain's running mate had essentially no impact on women voters compared to the last poll, taken before her selection.
Neither candidate has held a statistically significant lead over the other in any Virginia poll we've seen for at least the past three months. Turn-out will be key--we were happy that a couple of Obama canvassers stopped by the other afternoon. They had a sophisticated print-out of voters and were getting information on who their likely supporters will be and how committed they are to getting to the polls--a good ground game!
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