Virginia Election Returns: Complete Guide To What Happens Next In the Senate Race Between Jim Webb and George Allen (And Why Webb Wins)

As a service to our readers and to those around the country with an obvious interest in the final outcome of the Virginia Senate race, here's a complete guide to where the race stands and what will happen over the next few days and possibly weeks to get to a final vote tally. Our conclusion is that Webb's 7000+ current vote margin will stand and he will be the new Senator from Virginia.

First, where can you find the most up-to-date official information on the election? Go to the Virginia Board of Elections (VBE) website, which is very easy to use and is updated frequently, at:
http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org

As of this post, Webb's lead is 7316 votes.

If you looked at the VBE website earlier today, you would've seen that all but three out of 2443 precincts (99.87%) had reported. Now, however, the website says that approximately 95% of precincts (2464 of 2599) have reported. That's a bit misleading: all but three of those "new" missing precincts are simply to report results of "conditional" ballots, of which there are very few--less than 10 for most jurisdictions. The conditional ballots have been dividing evenly between Webb and Allen and so won't budge the numbers when they're all counted.

We have looked at all the missing precincts and believe that no more than 6000 votes (out of 2.4 million total cast) are yet to be posted. Even under the rosiest possible scenario, Allen would not snag more than 60% of those (we think it will be closer to 52%), meaning he could only close the gap by, at most, 1200 votes (we think it will be a lot less).

So, what happens next? Virginia is no Florida. We have effective, efficient and nonpartisan election boards who pride themselves on their professionalism.

Over the next few days, the local boards will conduct a canvass--essentially an audit of the votes they reported to the VBE on election night. The canvass will change a few votes, but they usually are not in one direction. The only exception would be if the election board in a large county made a big mistake--like omitting to report the votes from several machines (all jurisdictions in Virginia used electronic voting machines in this election--we haven't had problems with them in prior elections).

The canvass can change a few votes here and there. Last year, in a very close statewide election for attorney general, the Republican candidate, Bob McConnell led by roughly 1800 votes--out of more than 2 million cast--before the canvass began. In the canvass process, his lead dwindled to about 320 votes. (We don't know if there is anything in the process that tends to favor Democrats--we doubt it.) So it is possible we could see some erosion--or increase--in Webb's margin. We are not aware of any instance in Virginia where the canvass (done in all races) moved a result by more than 7000 votes.

By November 27, the VBE must certify the results of the election. Assuming Allen is still behind by roughly the same margin, he would have 10 days--starting after the certification--to request a recount. Given the current margin--less than a half percent difference between Webb and Allen--the state/local boards would be required to pay for the recount.

A recount in Virginia, however, is really more accurately described as a retabulation, i.e., re-checking again the numbers from the canvass.

Republican lawyers could try to seek a more extensive recount, but they aren't likely to get it--the precedent was established just last year in the statewide recount of the Attorney General's race described above. In that case, the Republican, McConnell, had the slight lead (a few hundred votes) and so the REPUBLICANS successfully resisted a complete recount. They now get to live with that decision.

In the recount a year ago, fewer than 100 votes changed. That's not surprising since the recount is simply a re-canvass of the thorough canvass that already took place.

So what does that mean in the current race? It means Allen's best hope is that some major mistake is found in the initial canvass, and that it somehow favors Allen. It would have to be pretty huge to erase a 7000 vote margin. Bear in mind that mistakes rarely favor one candidate exclusively.

So let's say that 60 percent of the mistakes found in the canvass favor Allen. There would have to be something like 35,000-40,000 mistaken votes in total to close the gap. We think that's next to impossible (barring fraud).

So, for now, we'll sit back and let the process work. If, as we think will be the case, the margin for Webb remains above 5000 votes when the VBE certifies its results, we hope Allen will forego a recount given the miniscule chance of it changing anything. It would be better to save the state that money.

(And before you go and say, "well, Mr. Curmudgeon, that didn't stop Democrats from demanding a recount in the AG race in 2005" please bear in mind that the margin at the beginning of that recount was barely more than 300 votes, AND that we had no experience with a statewide recount. Now, we have that experience and we can be confident that a re-canvass is not going to overcome a 5000 vote margin.)

Let us know if you have any questions about the process--we'd be happy to answer them.