Virginia Election Results: Webb Wins It--Pay No Attention To The Media

The national media are saying that the Virginia Senate race is still "too close to call."

Baloney. Webb has won it. It was close, but he's won. Here's why:

[Note: See periodic updates at the bottom.]

As of 8:40 a.m., the Virginia Board of Elections has posted results for all but six out of 2443 precincts in the state. That includes the absentee ballots from more than 90 percent of the counties and cities in Virginia.

At this point, Webb leads by 6931 votes. The six precincts that haven't reported are almost all absentee ballots from smaller counties (in Virginia, absentee ballots count as a separate precinct). They break down as follows:

Halifax County: Absentee ballots. Leans Allen.
Isle of Wight County: Absentee ballots. Leans Allen.
James City County: Absentee ballots, one regular precinct.
Loudon County: Absentee ballots, even split.
Fairfax City: Absentee ballots. Leans Webb.

We are pretty confident that the total number of outstanding votes from these precincts is less than 10,000, but even if it was double that, Allen would have to win nearly 75% to close the gap, and that simply is not going to happen. Most likely, Webb will still have about a 7000 vote edge when the missing precincts report.

So, what about a recount?

A recount is not going to swing 8000 votes, or anything close to that. There is clear precedent for what will happen now: last year, there was a much closer statewide race for Attorney General, which resulted in a recount. The Republican candidate led by just a few hundred votes after election day, but his lead held up through every stage of the certification, challenge and recount process.

Today, you will see some fluctuation in the numbers on the State Board website (which is at: http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/ ). This will occur as counties reconcile their totals from last night and make a few final adjustments. I watched this process occur in the AG race last year and the movement is generally random--Webb will pick up a few here and lose a few there, but things won't change too much.

A recount--if demanded by Allen--won't start until late this month, after the Board of Elections certifies the numbers. Last year, the statewide recount changed fewer than 100 votes. We think George Allen may actually rise above the hue and cry and NOT ask for a recount, since last year's experience shows it likely to be completely futile.

UPDATE 1 (10:00 a.m.):

With only four precincts now outstanding (Isle of Wight, James City County (2), and Fairfax City), Webb leads by 7146 votes. Loudon reported its absentees and added to Webb's margin by about 100 votes.

UPDATE 2: (12:30 p.m.):

Now there are only three precincts left to report and Webb leads by 7312 votes.

The three remaining are (1) the Raynor precinct in Isle of Wight County (probably 400-600 votes total--Allen took 57% in the rest of the county), (2) a group of absentee ballots from James City County (probably less than 1500 votes--Allen polled 53% in the county), and (3) the Roberts B precinct in James City County--this may just be a typo on the VBE website, as the same precinct is listed twice, with results reported once. Even if not a typo, the precinct wouldn't have more than about 1500 votes.

(We suspect James City County is trying to resolve the internal conflict: are we a city? are we a county?)

Bottom line: Webb wins.

UPDATE 3:

In the past half hour (around 4:30 p.m.) the Virginia Election Board amended its website to add another 156 precincts. Don't worry! All they've done is add spaces to tally "conditional votes" from each county and/or city. These numbers will be small and roughly in proportion to vote totals already tallied. Webb's 7000+ margin should hold through this process.

Local boards are also conducting a routine canvass--this is simply double-checking their numbers, making sure, for example, that 365 votes didn't get reported as 356 votes in the rush last night. Again, this process is not likely to move the overall margin absent a really major snafu.