Hillama versus McAbee?

Wow, we're falling down on the job here at Curmudgeon HQ. Last night we went to see a screening of one of AOL founder Ted Leonsis's "filmanthropy" projects, "Nanking," at Georgetown University. An excellent documentary so long as you don't mind nearly two hours of depressingly gruesome stories.

But that caused us to miss all kinds of other stories of our modern era. Hillary was right here in Arlington, speaking at Washington-Lee High School, where the young Curmudgeons will go if they manage to make it our of middle school. We missed it, but judging from the emails we're getting from both campaigns, Virginia is a real battleground between Clinton and Obama for the next few days.

Indeed, Virginia Democrats timed their Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond perfectly--who knew the race would still be in issue by this point--so that attendees this weekend will get the full treatment from both Hillary and Barack. Friends of ours are going--we're jealous.

Then, of course, Romney dropped out yesterday. A shrewd move on his part--shows the calculating businessman in him. He had no shot at this point, but he's still relatively young (certainly compared to McCain) and has built himself a good base in the Republican Party, so he cuts his losses and lives to fight another day.

We predict Huckabee will go one more round--through next Tuesday--then also graciously drop out (unless conservatives somehow rally around him--we doubt it--and he sweeps the Saturday and Tuesday contests).

We spent our post-movie evening last night debating the merits of Hillary versus Obama. Spiritedly debating, we might add. Too bad we broke down along predictable lines: the wives were for Hillary; the men-folk for Obama (although respectful of Hillary--we do like her).

With McCain as the GOP nominee, Democrats need the strongest ticket possible. We think that's Hillary and Obama, or Hillama. The remaining primaries are not going to decide this contest--it's too close and with proportional delegate allocation, neither candidate can get a real leg up. So pretty soon it's going to be time for party elders (not Bill) to get the candidates in a room and have a good, mature discussion about it.

Meantime, who's McCain going to pick as his veep? Having gotten the nomination on about a 35% plurality of the party, he has a lot of mollifying to do. It certainly won't be someone like Joe "been there, done that" Lieberman. It could be Fred Thompson, although we doubt he's interested--better to go back to television than be a figurehead veep.

Someone who would be interested is Mike "I don't have a job after this" Huckabee. That would certainly help with a significant segment of the evangelical community. Call it the McAbee ticket. But conservatives decided--pretty unfairly--to label Huckabee a "liberal" (that nastiest of all Republican sobriquets) early on, and they would see McAbee as far too centrist for their tastes.

So does McCain go with someone hard right? And if so, who? Kansas Senator Sam Brownback could fit that bill--bringing home evangelicals along with conservatives. There are others, of course. The problem is that many of the more vocal, bomb-throwing conservatives will never be mollified, no matter who McCain picks as his veep, so he may decide "hey, why bother."

We're not making any forecasts, at least not yet.

Heck, we're still trying to decide who to vote for on Tuesday. Probably Obama, despite Mrs. Curmudgeon's protestations. As Virginians, we'd love to see an Obama/Kaine ticket, really putting the state into play in November, but we're not going to bet any real money on that one.

And don't forget tomorrow's contests in Washington, Louisiana, Kansas (GOP only), Nebraska (Dem only) and the Virgin Islands (Dem).

Huck's Christmas Message Will Trump Romney's Scrooge

Fascinating. A few weeks ago we noted that this will be the first Holiday campaign, with candidates falling all over themselves to get voters' attention in Iowa and New Hampshire in the midst of the busy, festive holiday season.

Now, in Iowa, we see two very different strategies in play. Which will work?

On the one hand, we have the big, heavily financed, professionally run Romney campaign. If you somehow thought Romney was going to bring the least bit of anything new to American politics, think again--he's W Bush incarnate. It's the classic corporate campaign. (Hillary, too.)

And what is the Mittster doing? He's gone completely negative, with harsh campaign ads attacking Huckabee on immigration, crime and taxes. It's standard fare from the hardened professionals who run campaigns these days. Panicked by Huckabee's rise in past Romney in the polls, they go to the typical measure of the desperate: tear the other guy down. (Romney's hardly unique in this regard--we're just saying he sure isn't different.)

[Down in South Carolina, the usual litany of campaign dirty tricks is in full swing on the GOP side, and you can bet that no campaign is doing it more than Romney's, which early on signed up the state's hardest core political trench fighters to do it's bidding.]

Will Romney's negative campaigning work? Perhaps--it will move a few folks off Huckabee, but not toward Romney. Iowans typically don't like negativity, but you can bet they really don't like it during the Holiday season.

Now, what about Huckabee, he of the scrappy, underfinanced, ad hoc campaign? Huckabee came up with the idea of doing a Christmas commercial. Sitting in a living room in front of a fire, wearing a red sweater, the Huckster starts off with "Are you about worn out of all the television commercials you’re seeing? Mostly about politics. I don’t blame you.”

He then goes on to discuss "what really matters" this time of year, which, to him--and a huge chunk of GOP caucus goers in Iowa--is "the celebration of the birth of Christ and being with our family and our friends."

Here's the ad, if you're interested (or go to YouTube here):



Despite it's obviousness as a Holiday season political ad, it's quite brilliant. Why didn't anybody else think of it? Because, of course, hardened political consultants are all grinches at heart, all Scrooges whose only interest in true religion is as a demographic target. It's just not in their playbook.

Personally, we don't really like his ad at all--what about those who aren't Christians? But we're going to bet that it will be a huge hit among the voters that matter in Iowa for a Republican candidate, and that it will make Romney look like a total schmuck for running his bitter, negative advertising.

In about two weeks, we'll know which strategy worked.

Huckabee Blasts Bush Approach In Foreign Affairs

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, with his vast foreign policy experience, has penned a piece (okay, some foreign policy advisor wrote it) for the venerable trade publication Foreign Affairs. (See "America's Priorities In The War On Terror.")

The Huckster may be lacking in foreign policy experience (duh!), but at least he's got somebody good working for him. More importantly, the article once again illustrates why a lot people just instinctively like the man--and hence why he's a credible opponent to whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be.

What's endearing about the Preacher Man is that he's often not afraid to call a spade a spade. While the other GOP candidates dance around the Bush administration's obviously failed foreign policy--a source of great embarassment for many mainstream Republicans around the nation--Huckabee says what we all know: Bush's "arrogant bunker mentality has been counterproductive at home and abroad. American foreign policy needs to change its tone and attitude, open up, and reach out."

In typical Huckabee down-to-earth fashion, he likens the U.S. superpower to a "top high school student" who can be loved if modest about his "abilities and achievements" and "generous in helping others."

Huck is critical of Bush's focus on Iraq as counterproductive in dealing with the true terror threat from Afghanistan and Pakistan. "If Al Queda strikes us tomorrow, the attack wil be postmarked 'Pakistan.""

It's a clever strategy if for no other reason than it makes it hard, in a general election, for a Democrat to paint a target of Bush on him and then take aim.

Hilarious Huckabee Parody Ad

Since we've had a lot to say of late about Mike Huckabee's inexorable rise in the Republican polls, we thought we'd share this YouTube ad parody--like any good parody, there's a very large grain of truth in it.



(If you have any problems with the video, click here to go directly to it on YouTube.)

Willie Hortonization of Mike Huckabee

When you become the frontrunner, the media plants a big 'ol fat juicy target on you.

So Mike Huckabee is learning.

The story isn't new, but with Huckabee now taking center stage in the GOP nominating contest, he's suddenly fair game for whatever crap his political opponents can dredge up.

In this case, it didn't take too much dredging: the story was one of the biggest in Arkansas while Huckabee was governor. It's a Willie Horton type of thing. This time, the criminal is a man named Wayne Dumond. He kidnapped and raped a 17-year-old high school cheerleader in 1984. While awaiting trial--he was free on bond--two masked men tied him up and castrated him. He was later convicted and sentenced to life plus 20 years.

During the Clinton governorship of Arkansas, the Democratic Lt. Governor reduced Dumond's sentence enough so he could qualify for parole. Then, during Huckabee's governorship, the parole board released Dumond, evidently with Huckabee's blessing.

You can guess the rest: Dumond moved to Missouri, where he subsequently sexually assaulted and murdered a 39-year-old woman. (These facts come from a Byron York column in the National Review, where they love to Willie Horton their own.)

Now the story is hitting the mainstream media--see, e.g., CNN's "Huckabee Faces Scrutiny For Involvement In Rapist Parole."

We wonder what other skeletons the Huckster has in his closet.

GOP Debate Helps Huckabee

The clear winner of last night's GOP debate was Mike Huckabee. (That's him, at right, working on his winning--and slimming--form.)We're not basing that on the debate itself--are you kiddding, do you really think the Curmudgeon would waste two hours sitting through one of the Republican debates?

[We can barely stand the Democratic ones--we were delighted to see the one with CBS's Katie Couric get cancelled. There's just too many.]




Instead, we're basing it on the post-debate commentary on the right. Here's what we found:


"Yepsen: Huckabee Shows He Belongs In Top Tier" from the Des Moines Register. Iowa's leading newspaper political analyst compliments Huckabee and says "[a]fter Wednesday night, don't be surprised if Huckabee starts opening more of a lead in Iowa."





Then there's "Big Night For Huckabee" from MSNBC's Chuck Todd. We also liked the first comment on this article, from someone else who must've not watched, because he said "most conservatives are saying Romney won" [we couldn't find ANYBODY outside the Romney campaign saying that] and repeating the silly claim that Huckabee is a "liberal." These folks are giving us liberals a bad name!





And how 'bout "Huckabee Is For Real," from Real Clear Politics' John McIntyre, who says "It is not about Iowa only any more. Mike Huckabee has a real shot to be the Republican nominee."





Time Magazine's Mark Halperin, graded Huckabee highest, with a B+--tied with McCain--in his evaluation of the debate.





Even the Weakly Standard's Fred Barnes, who mostly railed that the debate format was "humiliating," backhandedly labelled Huckabee the winner: "The other candidates, with the exception of Mike Huckabee, were losers. They came off as a bunch of squabbling cousins.
Huckabee, though, knows how to conduct himself in TV debates. He's genial, funny, extremely likable, and not very substantive. He seems to understand that a CNN-You Tube debate is not a serious forum at which serious people discuss serious issues. So he doesn't get worked up, and this posture works."





Clearly, Huckabee will continue to be a major character in the Republican storyboard as the race gets focused in the next five weeks.

Wide Open Republican Presidential Contest

We like this analysis from seasoned political commentator Stuart Rothenberg concerning the Republican presidential nominating contest: Republican Campaign Still Includes Many Possible Storylines.

Rothenberg, like the Curmudgeon, is impressed with Huckabee's rise and concerned about Giuliani's strategy.

In particular, he had this to say about Giuliani, which jibes with the analysis we posted recently:

"Under normal circumstances, Giuliani's strategy of jump-starting his campaign in Florida, in late January, would be political lunacy, and many seasoned observers rightly remain skeptical of it. It's a strategy based on weakness, not strength, and it makes the former mayor prisoner to the outcomes of races in which he is participating half-heartedly. Giuliani advisers are only fooling themselves if they believe that unbroken early momentum doesn't matter."

Rothenberg goes on to say that it just might work due to the "peculiarities" of the process this time around. We'd say it's not likely to work, UNLESS Giuliani can come in second in Iowa and a respectable third or better in New Hampshire, and we doubt it will work at all if Guiliani does not win a single contest before Florida.

As for Huckabee, Rothenberg notes that if the former Arkansas governor can actually pull off a win in Iowa--still a longshot--it would be a major blow for Romney. Rothenberg says it would be "lights out" for the Mittster, but we think that's a little overstated.

And Rothenberg implicitly agrees with the Curmudgeon that Thompson is drifting aimlessly, stating that the Tennessean has "been something of a bust" of late.

We also agree with Rothenberg that the situation is fluid--and exciting. A lot could happen, and it will start happening soon.

The national media, on the other hand, seems more fixated on the Democratic race, hoping that someone--presumably Obama--can knock Hillary off her perch. It could happen, and it would, of course be a big story, which is exactly why the media are rooting for it. But the Republican race, with five viable candidates all slugging it out, remains the more interesting, with the possibility that it will go into overtime.

Make Way For Huckabee

The big story these days in the Presidential nomination contests is Mike Huckabee.

With the other right wing "values" candidates dropping by the wayside, the Republican social issue voters are beginning to coalesce rapidly around the former big man from Arkansas.

In just the past two weeks, Huckabee's poll numbers have surged in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, with Mr. Mike incredibly rising into second place in a couple of Iowa polls. With his wide margin of victory in the "Value Voters Summit" straw poll this weekend, Huckabee should continue his momentum. [Value Voters, of course, are not those looking for good value in a candidate, but rather those who believe THEIR values should be YOUR values.]

Now, what if Huckabee can win in Iowa, or at least give Mitt Romney a run for his money (and we mean that about the money quite literally). That would be a story, alright, and not the one Romney's banking on.

We think Huckabee's poll surge will continue as the GOP right wing finally gets its act together and the affable Arkansan peels off some of the lukewarm support that had been attached to Romney, Thompson and even Giuliani. The Huckster could garner 20 percent in Iowa and a respectable 15 percent or so nationally--enough to add to the already delicious turmoil in the Republican ranks.

Keep an eye on Governor Huckabee. He's got the big Mo'.

Huckabee, Schmuckabee

It's surprising how revealing just 10 questions can be.

Take presidential apsirant Mike Huckabee, the recently former Governor of Arkansas, who is most famous for shedding 100 pounds and fighting obesity (pictured here in his heftier days, on the right).

Time Magazine let readers ask Huckabee 10 questions as part of its regular "10 Questions" feature. Huckabee bombed his responses, clearly revealing a candidate unqualified to be President.

The first question was "why should I vote for you?"--a sure softball. With a great opportunity to distinguish himself, all the Huckster could come up with was "Because I believe that America's greatness is not in its government but in ordinary people. I know what it is like to start at the bottom, and I am very mindful of how hard people have to work to make it." Hunh?

So what?

Then Huckabee tries to explain his statement that America is "currently in a world war." He says we're "fighting against a perversion of the Muslim faith" in which "radical clerics have convinced a growing number of adherents that their purpose on earth is to kill, dismember and destroy as many people as possible." That certainly isn't the purpose of Al Queda and other radical muslim groups. His thinking is, remarkably, even more simplistic than W's.

Then, after denouncing the radical religious beliefs of some Muslims, Huckabee says, in response to a question about why he is "so fixated on unimportant topics such as gay marriage and abortion", that he "would disagree that protection of innocent life is insignificant. It is what separates us as a civilization from the very jihadists we are fighting." Are Muslim fundamentalists in favor of abortion? We don't think so. When we kill innocent civilians while tracking down jihadists, are we excused simply because we call it "collateral damage?" Not really.

Then there's this--for prospective members of the Huckaliban: when it comes to marriage, "the rules are one man, one woman for life." What does he mean by "for life"--no divorce? [Guiliani, McCain and Gingrich might want to ask him about that in a debate.]

The Huckmeister also bristles at the notion that the poultry industry in Arkansas is "wantonly" hiring illegal aliens, saying that he "would expect companies to take every step possible to ensure that their workers are legal." C'mon Governor, you KNOW those poultry operations would fail without illegals. Did you, as Governor, take every step possible to ensure that the companies were ensuring that their workers were legal? No.

We think Mr. Huckabee should go back to his trailer, er, we mean "manufactured housing," at the Arkansas Governor's mansion.