How The Russia Scandal Will Go Down For Trump

Now that an independent prosecutor has been appointed to investigate the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, we can hope to get to the bottom of this in due course.  It won't happen overnight--most likely, the probe will take at least a year.

Republicans should welcome the probe.  If an independent prosecutor clears the Trump campaign, they're all good.  If Mueller instead finds wrongdoing, they can get rid of Trump and have Pence as President, which would be much better for them all around.

Trump would also welcome the appointment of an independent prosecutor IF he and his campaign did nothing wrong.  Indeed, one of his big problems so far has been the refusal to say he would "welcome" an investigation that would clear his campaign of wrongdoing.

In any event, where there's smoke there's fire, and in the case of Trump's campaign there is plenty of smoke.  I believe the investigation will show that Trump's campaign did, indeed, coordinate with Russia, and that the coordination began early on, during the Republican primaries.  (If true that it started during the primaries, Republicans will be much more willing to Dump Trump.)

The key player is Michael Flynn.  Most likely, Flynn offered to use his contacts with Russians to help leverage the Trump campaign.  Paul Manafort was also undoubtedly  involved, and it wouldn't be surprising if some of the other clowns in Trump's camp--Roger Stone, Rudy Guiliani--played a role.

But Flynn is the main man.  We already know that he had many contacts with the Russians.  The question becomes who those Russians were and what they offered to do.  And also, what Trump knew.

Trump, of course, will deny that he knew anything.  In any scheme like this, it is important to protect the boss--plausible deniability.  That was the key in Watergate--it wasn't bugging DNC HQ per se that was the problem, but rather whether Pres. Nixon knew about it.  (Trump has already hedged his bets--stating yesterday that his campaign--or at least HE HIMSELF--did not coordinate with the Russians.

Note however, that Trump made Flynn his national security adviser despite NUMEROUS warnings not to.  It seems a promise was made, or maybe Flynn knew too much.

So, in the end, it will come down to Flynn.  Eventually, he will be given immunity in exchange for his testimony about what Trump knew.  I expect that he will then testify that yes, of course, the boss knew, but he didn't want to be informed of any of the details.

Then maybe we can get a serious President.