McCain Apparently Won Louisiana

As our readers know, we did our best this week to ferret out information on the arcane Louisiana Republican caucus, which occurred this past Tuesday in a process so obscure and complex that the mainstream media decided simply to ignore it.

It now appears that John McCain "won" Louisiana, or at least that's the official line of the GOP poohbahs in the state. Finally, the Washington Post got around today to carrying a brief story on the contest.

As the Post accurately stated, "Explaining -- let alone understanding -- what happened this week in Louisiana presents a serious challenge for even the most devoted of political junkies."

In any event, as we reported well before the Post, a slate of "uncommitted" delegates running under a "pro-life/pro-family" banner (and a big picture of Ronald Reagan) won a majority in every district. However, John McCain got the most delegates of any individual candidate, followed by Ron Paul. But McCain gets to double-dip, because evidently a number of those "uncommitted" delegates are McCain supporters as well.

We wonder how many Loosianans who voted for the picture of Reagan realized they were also voting for John McCain--sort of. Just a guess, but we bet a lot of Huckabee supporters probably thought this was their group.

Whether McCain will come out of the state convention with any actual national convention delegates is yet to be seen, but it's certainly likely.

In any event, as evidenced by the comments on our blog, Ron Paul had enthusiastic support at the caucus, and a lot of Paul supporters--justifiably, it would appear--felt they'd been had by the mysterious "pro-life" slate. Frankly, it sounds a lot like the politics of another century--the 19th. Perhaps next time around Louisiana can run some No-Nothings versus some Whigs.

Louisiana Republican Caucus: What Happened Last Night?

Last night, the Louisiana GOP held presidential nominating caucuses. It had to be the most convoluted caucus process yet, and it has been difficult to get information on who might have scored delegates to the national convention out of the process.

Unlike other GOP caucuses, Louisiana did not conduct a "straw poll" of its caucus attendees, so there are no percentages to report as to presidential preferences of those who went.

However, those who attended voted for delegates to county conventions, which in turn will select delegates to the state convention, which in turn will determine who goes as Louisiana's 47 delegates (about the same number as highly contested Florida) to the national convention. If a majority of delegates at a particular caucus site voted in their slate, then the candidate supported by that slate will ultimately get some delegates to the Big Dance in September.

As best we can tell, Ron Paul supporters enthusiastically attended the caucuses and voted for their delegates. Many Paul supporters, in web-posts, suggested that they had enough votes to win a majority of the delegates at their caucus sites. The Republican Party of Louisiana, however, reports that a slate of "uncommitted" delegates under the banner of "pro-life/pro-family" swept the caucuses in all congressional districts (subject to resolution of disputes over some provisional ballots) and will thus control which candidate gets support from Loosianans.

As best we can tell, the "pro-life/pro-family" slate represents a coalition of candidates, excluding Ron Paul, but including McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Thompson. If that's so, how they'll divide up the spoils--smoke-filled back room?--is pretty unclear. Here's a sample ballot from the pro-life slate, featuring a photo of Ronald Reagan and urging voters to "[k]eep the Republican Party focused on Ronald Reagan's values of less government, more freedom, strong families and a strong national defense." Well gosh, who could be against that--maybe they should run in every state!

Louisiana is also holding a non-binding primary on February 9. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in that primary, then he will win 20 of Louisiana's delegates (the at-large and bonus delegates). Otherwise, those delegates will be "uncommitted"--but will be picked by the mysterious "pro-life/pro-family" delegates who won out last night.

Of course, the pro-life slate will ultimately have to figure out who they really support, which could lead to all kinds of squabbling.

Bottom line: we won't know who's gotten delegate support from Louisiana until after the state convention on February 16.

Louisiana GOP Caucus Results?

This evening, the Louisiana Republican Party held caucuses at 11 sites across the state to select delegates to a state convention at which Louisiana's GOP convention delegates will be determined. The caucuses could potentially benefit one of the Republicans running for President, but this one really takes the cake--it's so complicated that no one is reporting on it.

The caucuses closed at 8:00 pm--9:00 here--so maybe it's a bit early for results, which will be difficult to interpret in any event. But so far the only thing we could find was from a Ron Paul supporter who stated that the Paulies had a majority of the turnout at the Lake Charles caucus site.

Here's how Louisiana's caucus works (I think): The attendees at the 11 caucus sites voted on delegates to the statewide convention. Those delegates are nominally "uncommitted." But if a majority of attendees at a caucus site were, for example, Ron Paul supporters, they would vote for delegates who, in turn, will support Paul. But that process only accounts for about half the La. delegates to the GOP national convention. The remaining delegates--those who are "at large" or "bonus" delegates--will be selected at the state convention; if someone gets 50% of the vote in a "beauty contest" primary on Feb. 9, then he gets that second tranch of delegates; otherwise, they're also nominally uncommitted.

That said, it looks like Ron Paul has a decent chance of ultimately having quite a few Louisiana "uncommitted" delegates in fact committed to him.

And if that's so, it will certainly teach the Louisiana Republican Party leadership a thing or two about having such a ridiculous nominating process.

In any event, it looks like Loosianans will be ignored, despite this amusing quote from Roger Villere, the chairman of the La. Republican Party, earlier this month: “We’re excited about the upcoming caucuses. I believe this system will allow Louisiana Republicans to have a strong impact on the election of the next President of the United States.”

Curmudgeon Clarification on Lousiana and Hawaii GOP Caucuses

Spurred by one of our commenters, we took a closer look at the Lousiana and Hawaii Republican caucuses that take place next week, before Florida, but are being ignored by the Mainstream Media and even sophisticated pundits.

Having looked more closely, we can see why they're being ignored--both are so complicated and/or unusual that they are difficult to follow.

First, Louisiana: Next Tuesday, Louisiana Republicans will hold a closed caucus--i.e., open only to registered Republicans. The caucus will select delegates who, officially, will be "uncommitted." About half the delegates will not be allocated to any candidate until after a presidential primary selection process on February 9; the other half will remain "uncomitted"--however, each candidate will be running candidates for delegate who will support that candidate.

That's a simpler explanation than the way it really works, but it's good enough for here. The point is that it will be pretty difficult to parse at the end of the day on Tuesday who "won" because the caucus attendees won't be expressing a candidate preference. Nonetheless, someone (or ones) will walk out with a few delegates from the process, so the candidate whose campaign spends the time working it out can get something valuable from the process.

Hawaii is also weird because it's caucuses open next Friday, Jan. 25, but they go on through Feb. 5, at various locations. Thus, we won't really know who "won" Hawaii until Super Duper Tuesday, at which point the info won't be of much use in terms of anyone's momentum, etc.

Both the Louisiana and Hawaii selection process suffer from a not too uncommon Republican Party trait: paranoia. Worried that independents (heaven forbid) or even not particularly politically active or acute registered party member will get involved in the selection process, the GOP in some states erects elaborate procedures designed to make sure that only the party faithful have a say in the outcome. These are kind of mini-brokered affairs.

McCain, who does well with independents and moderate Republicans (who increasingly are frozen out of party leadership) presumably is at a disadvantage in these contests. Romney is at an advantage because of his extensive organization. Huckabee could be at an advantage given the disproportionate influence of evangelicals in these things, but he suffers from disorganization.

In any event, we'll be a little less critical of the MSM for its failure to cover these contests. The Curmudgeon, however, will do its best to check on what's happening with them and factor them into the larger picture.