Packed House For Warner

Our Denver correspondent reports that he attended an "overflow event" this afternoon featuring Mark Warner, with folks "spilling out the door."

"Warner broke off from his [keynote] speech prep to address us, saying among his brief comments, 'I've kept my remarks to 15 or 16 minutes because I've learned it's hard to mess up too badly in that length of time.'"

Of course, Mark W.'s got some big shoes to fill after what's-his-name's keynote address four years ago.

Mark Warner To Give Democratic Convention Keynote Address

He's not even a sitting Senator (yet), but Democrats have selected former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to give the keynote address at their rapidly approaching convention.

Way to go Mark!

Here's the campaign's announcement from late last night (if we'd had our blackberry on while watching the women's gymnastics, we could've beat everyone to the punch on this one!):

It's late, but I couldn't wait to share with you some exciting news. Governor Warner has been asked to address this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver as the primetime keynote speaker on Tuesday night.

According to Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, "Mark Warner is not afraid to challenge the status quo to bring people together and get things moving. It's that kind of spirit and innovation that resulted in his selection as keynote speaker on a night when the Convention program will focus on renewing America's economy."

Mark Warner--Radical Centrist

Last night we co-hosted a fundraiser in support of Gov. Mark Warner's run for the Senate. We hope to get some photos back shortly, but for now we'll just have to do with text.

Gov. Warner did well--he even impressed the always cynical (toward politicians) Mrs. Curmudgeon, who became an enthusiastic supporter after chatting with Virginia's next Senator and hearing what he had to say to the assembled group.

Warner told us he wants to be a "radical centrist" in the Senate, doing there what he did as Virginia's governor: putting together a bipartisan coalition of moderates in both parties to get working on our nation's problems.

It's a good sentiment, but probably not as easy as it sounds.

Warner's key issues appear to be energy and health, although he's clearly ready for just about anything.

On energy, don't expect Warner to follow Democratic Party orthodoxy: he's likely to favor a mix of incentives to stimulate new domestic oil and gas production, while also supporting renewable energy and increased nuclear production.

Warner also thinks--and he's probably right--that Democrats are a little off message on energy, putting too much emphasis on global warming and not enough on energy security. Politically, his instincts are good on this. But we could've engaged the Governor all night on energy policy, had time allowed. After all, the steps needed to achieve energy security--i.e., to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil--are different in important respects from those needed to reduce greenhouse emissions, although there is, fortunately, some common ground between the two.

[Even where the ground is common, there are obstacles. Take nuclear energy: essentially no greenhouse emissions and no reliance on foreign oil (although we may have to import uranium), yet there are still many activists standing in the way, and the nuclear waste issues remains a hot potato.]

Warner made a fortune in the private sector, and he clearly believes private enterprise, with some help from the government, is in the best position to help sovle our energy woes.

And by the way, Virginia being a coal state, Warner would not freeze coal out of the picture, although he certainly understands the need for new technologies to reduce coal CO2 emissions.

Warner is also keen on health care, and all the more knowledgable from having been governor of a fairly large state for four years. (It's a shame there aren't more former governors in the Senate these days, because they know their state programs and they know what the states need from the feds--right now there are only four former governors in the Senate, whereas in the past the typical path to the Senate was through the governor's mansion.)

What we like about Mark Warner is that he is a pragmatic progressive. He's not all that different from retiring Senator John Warner--they probably agree on a lot--but J. Warner is a pragmatic conservative and, unfortunately, beholden to a Republican party mired in bad ideas and policy.

For more on Mark Warner, check out his campaign website.

Finally, don't get complacent about this campaign--two years ago, George Allen had a nearly 20 point lead over Jim Webb at this point (he didn't utter "macaca" until August).

We're hoping 2008 will be a breakthrough year for Virginia, that will see it go blue for the first time in more than 40 years in a Presidential election. With Mark Warner headlining the state ticket, with an open congressional seat in Fairfax County and a couple other competitive congressional races around the state, with conservatives disillusioned with McCain (and even Gilmore0, and with African-Americans hopefully energized by Obama, the stars appear to be aligned the right way.

Warner Up Over Gilmore: 55%-39%

The Rasmussen Poll reports that Mark Warner continues to maintain a wide lead over former Governor Jim Gilmore, 55%-39%. While that's not quite as big as the 20 point lead Warner had in Rasmussen's poll a month ago, it's still a comfortable lead.

Will Gilmore even get the GOP nomination? We'll know in a couple months--there's still an outside chance Bob "Taliban" Marshall will pull an upset at the GOP state convention.

Old Dominion Polls: Obama over McCain; Warner In A Walk

A couple polls of Virginians' sentiments in the November elections have been released recently:

In the race for John Warner's open senate seat, Mark Warner is way ahead, leading former Governor Jim Gilmore by 20 points in a Rasmussen poll, 57% to 37%. (Still, we think it would be more fun if the GOP nominates Bob "Taliban" Marshall, a right wing religious bigot, as it's nominee.)

In the presidential race, a Survey USA poll demonstrates the potential for Virginia to go blue in November: in a match-up between Obama and McCain, Obama leads 51%-45%; but if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, voters flip, favoring McCain by 48%-45% (which is still within the margin of error).

Hey, folks--it's only February, so don't put too much stock in these polls. Two years ago, George Allen had a 20+ percent lead over any Democratic contender, and look how that ended up!

Mark Warner Piles Up The Early Cash

Holy smokes, Mark Warner has already raised $1.1 million to finance his bid for the open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. (See "Kaine, Warner Pile Up Donations")

Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to stack the deck for the nomination of former Governor Jim Gilmore, who briefly--and invisibly--ran for President. (So it's likely to be a race between two former Virginia governors, both of whom dropped out of the Presidential race.) Gilmore's opponent for the GOP nomination is Congressman Tom Davis, a more moderate Republican from northern Virginia. The Party has decided to select its nominee in a convention, which will be stuffed with conservative party members, rather than a primary that would be open to more moderate independent voters, thereby favoring the conservative Gilmore.

All of which looks good for Warner, along with early polls showing him with a commanding lead over either Republican opponent.

But then, think how George Allen felt about his prospects about this time two years ago: piles of moola in the bank, wide lead in the polls, Democrats divided over who to nominate out of two not very well known contenders, and Allen's name being bandied about as a strong presidential contender.

And look how that turned out.

So let's not make any assumptions about this race yet. Warner will need to work hard, raise money and avoid any kind of macaca moment.

Go, Mark, Go!

We're amused by our fellow Virginia bloggers on the right who are putting a brave face on this. Go ahead, throw Car Tax Jim Gilmore at us.

Mark Warner for Senate

Now that John Warner has announced his retirement from the Senate, after 30 years of good service to Virginia and the nation, we hope that the other Warner--Mark--will run for the open seat.

We should be hearing from the former Governor before the end of the month. What's his calculus? On the one hand, Mark Warner seems to feel he is positioned as a potential Democratic VP candidate. We think that's an iffy proposition, at best.

[Of course, he may know a lot more than we do. Did Hillary cut some kind of back room deal with Warner many months ago, promising him the Veep slot if he dropped his presidential bid, which, at the time, appeared to be the most credible threat to Hillary's coronation? Would she keep that deal, even if she had made it? ]

Assuming there is no secret deal, then Warner still would be on any Democratic nominee's short list of potential running mates. But those "short" lists will be pretty long. In the end, the decision will be made on who can best complement the ticket or bring in a state that otherwise would be difficult to carry. We don't think any of the Democrats are going to be counting on carrying Virginia, with or without Warner on the ticket. He'll be in the ballgame, but ultimately won't get picked.

Now, let's look at his chances in a Senate race. Presumably, the Republicans will either (1) have a knock-down, drag-out battle between Jim Gilmore, of the conservative wing, and Tom Davis, of the "moderate" wing, further splitting an already divided state GOP, or (2) nominate Gilmore if Davis decides not to run. Either way, the Republicans will probably end up with Gilmore, who will be mostly remembered in Northern Virginia, at least, as the Governor who promised to end the car tax--but didn't.

Warner is a popular ex-governor who has plenty of personal money to augment his campaign. But he won't need it--he's already got a decent national fundraising base and will be able to raise millions without too much trouble, helped by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and by Jim Webb's base. Warner will do extremely well in Northern Virginia, without doing too poorly anywhere else in the state. Absent some awful "macaca" moment, he should win comfortably, with 52-54 percent of the vote.

Ironically, having Mark Warner run for Senate in 2008 would also improve the national ticket's chances in Virginia, especially if the race is against Gilmore. Warner should improve Democratic turnout in the state, especially in Northern Virginia, and if Republicans are even a little apathetic it might just be enough to swing Virginia to the Democratic side for the first time in decades.

Unfortunately, if Warner declines to run, the Democrats don't have anyone who stands out as an alternative.

To us, it boils down to this: Mark Warner should go for the surer thing. Yes, nothing is for sure in politics. But right now, the soon to be vacant Senate seat looks like Mark Warner's for the taking, whereas the VP slot is a total wildcard. If elected to the Senate, Warner will be respected by his colleagues and earn terrific committee assignments, like his colleague, Jim Webb.

Go for it, Mark!

Warner To Retire, Leaving Door Open For Warner?

Right wing pundit (and exposer of CIA agents) Bob Novak reports that Republicans expect Sen. John Warner to announce his retirement soon, which would pave the way for a strong run by former Virginia Governor Mark Warner.

Could Virginia really go from two GOP Senate seats to two Dem Senate seats in just two years? We say yes.

Could Eliz. Edwards Cancer Recurrence Resurrect Mark Warner's Campaign?

Despite the brave face put on by John and Elizabeth Edwards, the recurrence and spread of her cancer have to be devastating news. For now, John says he will continue the campaign, urged on by Elizabeth. We don't doubt their sincerity--Elizabeth is clearly a strong and resolute woman.

The lingering question, however, is where the Edwards campaign will be in six months or so. Treatments for Elizabeth's cancer are bound to take a toll. They have small children. And this is an unusually long election campaign. John Edwards is, by presidential standards, still a young man. He could ultimately decide to withdraw from the race to deal with his wife's illness and still make a comeback down the road (perhaps, at some point, running for Governor of North Carolina to get some executive experience).

IF Edwards were to withdraw by this Fall, it would open the door to reconsideration by former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. Although Warner withdrew from the race last year, citing the toll it would take on his family, he's still going around the country meeting with small groups of Democratic activists. He has enough personal money to jump start a campaign late in the season.

While the betting is that Warner is trying to position himself as the Dems VP nominee, he might very well see an Edwards exodus as an opportunity. It would be a tough calculus--on the one hand, getting back in would certainly burn all bridges with Hillary's supporters. On the other hand, we still think Warner ultimately would be a strong general election candidate, with tremendous appeal to moderate independent voters. While we think highly of both Hillary and Obama, we're concerned that in head-to-head polls with Guiliani and McCain, they generally lose.

One would think that at this point in the game, with Bush's popularity in the toilet and Republicans on the defensive, the head-to-head match-ups would go for just about any leading Democratic contender. That hasn't been the case, and while we're still a long way from the general election, it belies serious problems with how independent voters view the leading Democratic contenders.

(We also think there's still a good chance the Republican Party will melt down into Baghdad like strife, especially after Gingrich enters the race--which we're increasingly confident will occur--and either nominate someone besides Guiliani or McCain, or launch a splinter movement for a conservative third-party candidate. If that happens, Democrats chances in '08 vastly improve.)

We're not making any predictions, certainly not at this point. But if you have a "Warner '08" bumper sticker or pin, hang on to it, at least for now.

'08 Election Could Bring Interesting Virginia Match-ups

With a full slate of legislative elections in Virginia this year, we're skipping ahead a bit to focus on '08, where some interesting races are beginning to shape up.

The big question is whether Senator John Warner seeks re-election. If not, Democrats have a terrific opportunity to pick up another Senate seat and one or two House seats.

Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican representing an increasingly Democratic district in Northern Virginia, has expressed interest in running for Warner's seat. If Davis does so (or otherwise decides not to run for re-election), the Chairman of Fairfax County's Board of Supervisors, Gerald Connolly, a Democrat, has been hinting that he'll make a run for Davis's seat. With the huge Democratic majority in Fairfax County, Connolly would probably win, marking a Dem pick-up.

The race for Warner's Senate seat could be quite interesting. Aside from Davis, former Senator George Allen has recently expressed interest in running if Warner steps down. That could set the stage for an entertaining Republican primary. On the Democratic side, we can only hope that former Governor Mark Warner will run. We think Warner would best either Allen or Davis. The question in our mind is whether Mark Warner will instead be focused on the possibility of obtaining the nod as Democratic candidate for Vice President, a position of which he's made known his interest.

Virginia with two Democratic senators? Now wouldn't that be sweet!

Is Mark Warner Reconsidering?

Is Mark Warner reconsidering his decision not to run for President in '08? Perhaps. At a minimum, it appears he's still conflicted.

Yesterday, Warner had lunch in Charleston, SC with an impromptu gathering of local Democratic activists who were recruited at the last minute via email and phone. About 25 of Charleston's most influential Dems attended, including legendary Mayor Joe Riley.

Warner indicated that his decision not to run was based on his feeling that he wasn't "1000 percent sure" he wanted to do it. But now he says he's not sure the "1000 percent" standard is the right one.

No doubt, many Warner supporters and other Democratic Party movers and shakers would like to see Warner in the crowded field, perhaps as an alternative to Edwards as the attractive Southerner in the race. Some probably want Warner in only as an Edwards spoiler, while others genuinely like the former Virginia governor and would support him all the way. (Our read of the polls has been that Edwards was a huge beneficiary of Warner's decision to drop out.)

In any event, with South Carolina shaping up as a key early battleground state (and Iowa looking increasingly irrelevant with Vilsack in the field), it's certainly interesting to find non-candidate Warner making the trek to Charleston.

To be sure, Warner was as diplomatic as possible, telling the group that he has a lot of respect for Sen. Barack Obama. Warner offered a story in which, before meeting Obama, he expected to dislike the Illinois Senator, but ended up getting completely charmed when the two finally had a chance to sit down together.

Warner told the group he's beginning to focus on two major policy issues: health care and energy independence. [Tomorrow, the Curmudgeon will discuss Democrats' tendency to conflate policies on energy independence with those concerning climate change, which turn out to be two very different, albeit overlapping, subjects.] Warner noted that the federal government spends about as much each year on energy independence (we guess he means alternative energy) as it does in a week on the war in Iraq.

Warner also clearly opened the door to serving as the Democratic nominee for Vice President, and in the end, that could be what he's angling for.

Right now, we think Warner's in "wait and see" mode. He's got enough money--both from his personal fortune and in the bank of his Forward Together pac--that he can afford to jump in later than many of his rivals. We suspect that if Hillary can't get traction in the polls after Obama's leap into the race, Warner will be sorely tempted, especially if Edwards begins emerging as a kind of party alternative to the two stalemated leaders.

At the same time, we can't help but think the media will taunt Warner as a "flip-flopper" if, after declaring himself out, he suddenly gets back in. He'd need a good cover story for that one.

The one thing that is clear is that Warner hasn't fully disengaged from the race. There's bound to be more to this story in the coming weeks.