Is Mark Warner Reconsidering?

Is Mark Warner reconsidering his decision not to run for President in '08? Perhaps. At a minimum, it appears he's still conflicted.

Yesterday, Warner had lunch in Charleston, SC with an impromptu gathering of local Democratic activists who were recruited at the last minute via email and phone. About 25 of Charleston's most influential Dems attended, including legendary Mayor Joe Riley.

Warner indicated that his decision not to run was based on his feeling that he wasn't "1000 percent sure" he wanted to do it. But now he says he's not sure the "1000 percent" standard is the right one.

No doubt, many Warner supporters and other Democratic Party movers and shakers would like to see Warner in the crowded field, perhaps as an alternative to Edwards as the attractive Southerner in the race. Some probably want Warner in only as an Edwards spoiler, while others genuinely like the former Virginia governor and would support him all the way. (Our read of the polls has been that Edwards was a huge beneficiary of Warner's decision to drop out.)

In any event, with South Carolina shaping up as a key early battleground state (and Iowa looking increasingly irrelevant with Vilsack in the field), it's certainly interesting to find non-candidate Warner making the trek to Charleston.

To be sure, Warner was as diplomatic as possible, telling the group that he has a lot of respect for Sen. Barack Obama. Warner offered a story in which, before meeting Obama, he expected to dislike the Illinois Senator, but ended up getting completely charmed when the two finally had a chance to sit down together.

Warner told the group he's beginning to focus on two major policy issues: health care and energy independence. [Tomorrow, the Curmudgeon will discuss Democrats' tendency to conflate policies on energy independence with those concerning climate change, which turn out to be two very different, albeit overlapping, subjects.] Warner noted that the federal government spends about as much each year on energy independence (we guess he means alternative energy) as it does in a week on the war in Iraq.

Warner also clearly opened the door to serving as the Democratic nominee for Vice President, and in the end, that could be what he's angling for.

Right now, we think Warner's in "wait and see" mode. He's got enough money--both from his personal fortune and in the bank of his Forward Together pac--that he can afford to jump in later than many of his rivals. We suspect that if Hillary can't get traction in the polls after Obama's leap into the race, Warner will be sorely tempted, especially if Edwards begins emerging as a kind of party alternative to the two stalemated leaders.

At the same time, we can't help but think the media will taunt Warner as a "flip-flopper" if, after declaring himself out, he suddenly gets back in. He'd need a good cover story for that one.

The one thing that is clear is that Warner hasn't fully disengaged from the race. There's bound to be more to this story in the coming weeks.