The Wrong Lesson From Gustav

A lot of people seem to be drawing the wrong lesson from New Orleans' survival of Hurricane Gustav.

Yes, the levees held. But Gustav was a category two hurricane when it struck. Even so, it nearly topped the levees along the infamous Industrial Canal, shown at right. The storm surge basically went right to the top of the levee, with wind-blown waves sloshing over.

So what would've happened with a Cat 3--or greater--storm? Clearly, anything larger than Gustav would've topped the levee and once again flooded the Ninth Ward and other particularly vulnerable communities in New Orleans. Whether the levees would've also collapsed--as they did in Katrina--once overtopped, we don't know, but we wouldn't want to be there to find out!

So, the right message from Gustav is this: New Orleans is still not protected from any hit by a hurricane greater than a category two. That should make plenty of people nervous, especially since we've got a long way left to go in this very busy hurricane season.

McCain, Palin Watch Tennis As Gustav Looms

Take a good look at the photo above from today's Washington Post. The Post says this is a picture of McCain and Mayor Palin getting a briefing on Hurricane Gustav from the Emergency Operations Center in Jackson, Mississippi.

But look at the television screens in the background. The one to the right of Palin has an image of the hurricane warning zones on the gulf coast.

But look at the one to the left, between Palin and McCain: there's a picture in picture that is clearly showing a tennis match from the U.S. Open in New York. So maybe McCain didn't ask to watch the tennis, but those Mississippi officials yucking it up with the candidates obviously aren't too concerned.

Which raises the question: why did McCain go to Jackson, Mississippi, instead of Lousiana? Sounds like something Bush would do (indeed, he's in Texas today). The answer is that the governor of Mississippi is Haley Barbour, former chairman of the Republican Party, so these are all his people. Plus, they aren't all that worried--they're watching tennis for goodness sakes--so they can afford to interrupt what they're doing with a politically motivated photo op.

Whereas if McCain and his highly experienced Veep were to go to Louisiana, they'd encounter Governor Bobby Jindal, who albeit a Republican, is actually busy dealing with a real problem.

(Aside: Jindal was raised as a Hindu; he converted to Catholocism as a teenager. You don't see the a-holes on Faux News going after him, questioning his religious convictions and accusing him of secretly being an agent of India.)

Gustav, Hanna Steal Show From GOP

So where are all those right wing evangelicals who think everything is a sign from God? What do they make of not one, but two, hurricanes bearing down on the U.S. as the GOP begins its quadrennial convention?

This is, of course, a nightmare for John McCain and the former mayor of Wasila, Alaska. Not only does it look bad for the Republicans to be celebrating in Minneapolis while a massive hurricane once again devastates the Gulf Coast, but the news cycle for the convention will be entirely disrupted.

Indeed, it is possible that McCain's planned speech on Thursday will be overshadowed by a combination of images of destruction from Gustav (the remnants of which are expected to still be hanging around dropping heavy rain on the Louisiana by late in the week) and the approach of Hanna to the southeastern coastline.

On the other hand, maybe it will give McCain something to talk about.

Not to mention Sarah Palin--maybe she can relate her experiences with nuisance caribou in Wasila, and her terrific work making sure that Alaska state police authorities are responsive to her family, to the crisis on the Gulf Coast.

Memo To New Orleans: Get Out!

Does New Orleans have a realistic evacuation plan this time?

Gustav = Katrina?

Will Hurricane Gustav pull a Katrina on New Orleans in a few days?

Possibly. We were going to pull it all together after looking at the National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast track for Gustav, but then we came across this post from the Capital Weather Gang over at the Washington Post, which says all we need say at this point.

Our one caution is that the NHC's five day forecast is more likely to be wrong than right, especially five days out, so the likelihood of Gustav finishing off New Orleans is still pretty small.