Will Virginia Republicans Take A "Thumpin'" In '07?

It looks like Virginia's Republicans are destined to duplicate the feats of their national brethren in the upcoming 2007 elections for the General Assembly. Will they lose one or both houses? It's certainly possible.

While its still early, recent events point to Democratic gains in the '07 races, when all seats in the General Assembly will be up for grabs with no statewide or national races in play.

First up in the bad news for Republicans is the vote of the Prince William Board of Supervisors--mostly Republicans, mind you--to impose a one year moratorium on new home construction in the county. The vote is intended to send a message to Richmond to get something done on the transportation front.

Prince William has been tending more Democratic in recent elections, and will continue in that direction, especially if the conservative GOP block in the state House continues to frustrate a comprehensive transportation bill.

Second up in the bad news is Loudon County's similar approval of a measure significantly restricting new development in that jurisdiction. While Loudon's problems are a bit different than those of Prince William, the transportation gridlock in Northern Virginia has certainly contributed to the thinking about restricting growth there. Loudon also has been tending more Democratic of late.

One other piece of bad news for Republicans: a federal court in Richmond has thrown out a law requiring open primaries in Virginia, meaning that Republicans likely will hold closed primary contests to nominate some of their candidates next fall. Why is that bad news? Because it means the Republicans will likely field more conservative candidates--no one in the primaries will be playing to independent voters--with a tin ear to the emerging politics of the Commonwealth.

Here's what's most likely to happen IF the conservative idealogues in the party again defeat any comprehensive transportation measure (we'd say there's a pretty good chance they'll wise up and compromise): just as in the national elections this fall, it will be the more moderate Republicans in swing districts who will lose, with Democrats making big gains in Fairfax, Prince William and Loudon counties (think of them as the Connecticut/Ohio/Indiana of the national race this year) and smaller gains in other parts of the state.

To take control of the Virginia Senate, Democrats would need to capture a net of 4 seats; in the House, Democrats would need to net 8 seats to take the majority. A tall task, but well within reach, as shown by the swing at the national level this year.

Democrats should make transportation THE issue for the coming election. They should get behind Governor Kaine and all support one measure. Transportation is the Virginia GOP's Iraq. If they insist on staying the course, they will lose.