Democrats Could Face A Real Mess

Conventional wisdom hasn't counted for much this political season, including on these curmudgeonly pages.

While we thought the political sands would certainly shift over time, the one thing we didn't foresee was the Republicans closing out their nomination process before the Democrats. Or the Dems getting themselves into a possible deadlock. Yet here we are and that's what could happen.

Almost certainly, Sen. John McCain will be crowned the Republican king by Wednesday morning. No, he won't be over the top in delegates--he'll still have a ways to go. Who knows, Romney might even top McCain in California, which would at least give Romney good reason to keep going. And maybe Huckabee will drop out after Super Tuesday--he certainly should if the only state he wins is Arkansas. So it won't be quite over, but the MSM will treat McCain as the presumptive nominee.

On the Democratic side, however, the race has become incredibly tight. Polls show Hillary and Obama in a statistical dead heat in numerous states. Turnout will likely be high and there will be some surprises.

But under the Democrats system of allocating delegates proportionally, neither Hillary nor Obama is going to come out of Super Duper Tuesday with any kind of decisive lead. Nor, barring a surprise (and we've had some of those, so don't be, er . . . surprised) will the MSM be able to declare one or the other the clear victor. It will be all spin city.

Here's the problem: the Dems award MOST of the delegates in each state proportionally, but then hold out a few as superdelegates, convention slots given to party bigwigs. So, even with Edwards out, it is possible in a close two-candidate race for neither to get enough pledged delegates to go over the top.

That's too bad, because it raises an ugly spectacle for the Democratic Party: the possibility that those unpledged superdelegates--instead of the millions of primary and caucus voters--will decide the nominee. It also raises the specter of a nasty floor fight over the delegates that were stripped from some states, most notably Michigan and Florida, where Hillary "won," but where Obama played by the rules.

The ugliest prospect: the nomination process ends with Obama leading in delegates pledged from the primaries/caucuses, and leading if you count up the "popular" vote, but with not enough delegates to put him over the top. Then the superdelegates line up disproportionately behind Hillary, helping her restore the Michigan and Florida delegates and ultimately putting her over the top.

Cries of "stolen election" come from the Obama camp and, irony of all ironies, freaking Florida is once again at the center of it all.

Conventional wisdom virtually all of last year was that the Democratic nominee would sail into the White House. Believe us, the Dems could still blow it, big time. Then again, we still have time for the conventional wisdom to say the Democrats blew it, that McCain will win, only to have that conventional wisdom also shot down in the waning days of October and early November.

In any event, let's hope we don't end up with an awful controversy over the selection of the Democratic nominee.

Romney Win In Maine Could Be His Last Hurrah

Mitt Romney won the Maine Republican caucuses held this weekend, taking 52% of the vote and all 18 delegates, despite support for McCain by the state's leading Republican elected officials.

Will this be the Mittster's last hurrah? Probably. Polls show McCain leading Romney in every Super Tuesday state except Massachusetts and Utah, although a couple states, such as California, are close.

Maine also illustrates the difference between caucuses, which tend to be dominated by the more conservative wing of the party, and primaries, which often include independents. As the conservative wing, urged on by the fulminations of Limbaugh, Coulter, Buchanan and their ilk, belatedly coalesces around Romney, he may do well in the Super Tuesday caucuses.

Unfortunately for Mitt, Huckabee is still hanging around, siphoning off the harder-core evangelical vote, which is not quite as receptive to a shrew like Ms. Coulter.

At one time, we thought Huckabee could carry a few states on Super Tuesday besides his home state of Arkansas, but now we're not so sure. Georgia looked solid for him just two weeks ago, but polls now show McCain leading there, and the state's two quite conservative GOP Senators have now endorsed the McCainster.

The one last hope for Romney: he carries enough caucus states and gets enough California delegates to keep on going, while Huckabee gets knocked out. That might let the anti-McCain movement finish its coalescing around Romney for the last round of contests, but we think it's likely to be too late by then, especially with the MSM fawning all over McCain.

After Florida: GOP Super Duper Tuesday

My, how much can change in two weeks. We ventured forth, after New Hampshire, to analyze the Super Duper Tuesday landscape on February 5, but--as we expected--much of our prognostication needs revision in light of interim developments.

Just two weeks ago, it was at least possible that Fred Thompson would win SC and Giuliani would win Florida, developments that would have virtually guaranteed a deadlocked GOP convention. Thompson was a longer shot, but we thought Rudy G. would at least make it interesting in Florida. Now both are gone, with Rudy endorsing John McCain and Thompson probably hoping his buddy McCain is the nominee.

Clearly, McCain in now the front runner. Some Romney folks will complain, but crowning Senator McCain as the leader is fair at this point.

The Straight Talker hasn't yet wrapped it up, however, and there's still a couple scenarios where he could be denied the nomination, or have to wheel and deal--probably with Huckabee--to get it.

With that in mind, let's re-examine the Super Duper Tuesday landscape. To re-cap, Republicans in 21 states will select roughly half of all delegates to the national convention on February 5. Some states will conduct winner-take-all primaries, others will have closed caucuses, and many will do something in between.

Let's start with the easy calls (numbers in parentheses are total delegates for a state): Romney will win Massachusetts and Utah. The bad news is that Massachusetts (43) awards its delegates proportionally--so he won't get all of them. The good news is that Utah (36) is winner-take-all.

Huckabee will win Arkansas (34), which is a modified winner-take-all. He should get most of those delegates under that system.

McCain will win Arizona (53), which is winner-take-all.

Now for the next tier--states with decent polling info or other indications of how it is likely to go.

McCain looks strong in the East Coast blue states where Giuliani had been the favorite. All of these are winner-take-all, meaning he can clean up and there is no incentive for Romney to waste money fighting for them. Those states (winner-take-all, unless otherwise noted) are: New York (101), New Jersey (52), Connecticut (30) (Lieberman is a big help here), and Delaware (18). The fact that McCain can pick-up 201 delegates in these states, plus 53 in Arizona, all without doing much work or spending any money virtually assures that he will come out of Super-Duper Tuesday with the most delegates and hence retain the front-runner title.

McCain also should do well in two other blue states: Illinois (70) and California (173). Neither is winner-take-all, but in California McCain can take all delegates in any congressional district he wins, even by a plurality, plus the state's at-large delegates. At a minimum, we'd expect McCain to take well over 50% of the delegates in both these states. And for media purposes he'll be declared the "winner" of both based on the total vote count.

Huckabee has a good chance to do well in Georgia (72) and Alabama (48), both of which are winner-take-all at the congressional district level. He won't get every delegate, but he'll get most.

After that, Huckabee has a shot at Missouri (58), Oklahoma (41), and West Virginia (30). He also has a shot at Tennessee (55), but may be hurt by voters who pull the lever for Fred Thompson notwithstanding the Fredster's having dropped out. He could also be hurt in West Virginia by an unusual set of caucus rules that require a series of run-offs for an ultimate winner-take-all (Romney could win under that rule). We can't see the Huckster winning anything else, however.

Romney needs to pick his shot and hope that between himself and Huckabee, they can keep McCain's delegate count down. Romney has a shot in red state caucuses in Alaska (29), Colorado (46), Montana (25), North Dakota (26) and maybe West Virginia (30). They're all caucus states, so independents are out and conservatives are in. Montana has a large Mormon population that will help. West Virginia has a winnowing process that could favor Romney.

Minnesota (41) also has a caucus, so that might help out Romney, but we wouldn't put Minnesota out of reach of McCain.

The problem with caucus states is they tend to be more proportional in awarding delegates, so while Romney could "win" a bunch of these states, he'll probably have to share some delegates with both McCain and Huckabee.

By the same token, Romney should be able to pick up some delegates in Illinois and California. It may also be worth it for him (and McCain) to contest Missouri, which is winner-take-all and has 58 delegates. Indeed, Missouri may be the one truly hot contest on February 5!

We've now handicapped all the states, but we'll add one more caveat: McCain has momentum and will be the lead story in the news for the next week. That means he could easily do better than we forecast here--for example, he could take Oklahoma, Colorado, Alaska and a few other states where no one has a really clear advantage.

The biggest risk to Romney is that he loses out to Huckabee, either in "wins" (i.e., states where he gets the most votes), or in delegates. The biggest risk to McCain is that he only wins "blue" states, leading Republicans in the remaining contests to doubt his credentials (but maybe leading them to believe he can win in November).

Finally, here's how we see the candidates coming out in terms of a delegate range on Feb. 5. There are 1081 delegates at stake, although some won't actually be awarded until later in the process. Of those, we'd expect McCain to get between 300-600; Huckabee should get between 170-350; and Romney would range from 200-350.

Those numbers don't look terrific for Romney, especially if Huckabee is angling for the Veep nod with McCain, as many speculate (and which would be a very wise move on McCain's part--at least today; but the political landscape, as we've seen, is ever-shifting, so McCain can and should wait).

We'll keep an eye on the polls and pundits between now and Super Duper Tuesday and let you know if things change. If they do, it's most likely to be in the direction of McCain, unless he does something really dumb in the next few days.

Later tonight, or tomorrow, we'll do a post on what Edwards' dropping out means on the Democratic side, along with how Democrats should calculate McCain as their likely opponent.

Super Duper Tuesday: The Democrats

Yesterday, we analyzed the February 5 "Super Duper Tuesday" nominating contests on the Republican side. Today, we look at it from the Democrats side. It's a much simpler--but far less conclusive--analysis.

We'll assume that Obama wins SC, Hillary wins Florida and Nevada is a toss-up. If so, neither candidate goes into Feb. 5 with a whole lot of momentum. As with the Republicans, it will be impossible for either Hillary or Obama to campaign effectively in all those states; however, both have sufficient money to run decent media campaigns in the more important races, whereas the Republicans are all so broke that, absent Romney writing himself a big check, they'll be relying on the free media for their publicity.

On Super Duper Tuesday, 22 states hold nominating contests on the Democratic side. Those states account for 2088 delegates--roughly 50% of the total at the August convention, although not all of them will be awarded on Feb. 5.

Unlike with the Republican candidates, however, there are very few states on the Democratic side where either Hillary or Obama has a distinct advantage. We assume that Hillary will comfortably carry New York (280) and New Jersey (127), and probably Connecticut (61). Obama will easily carry his homestate of Illinois (185). (Numbers in parentheses are the delegates allocated to the state.)

We also give Obama an edge in some southern states where African-American voters make up a disproportionate number of Democratic primary voters: Georgia (104) and Arkansas (47).

After that, it's a crapshoot. Edwards is a complete non-factor--he cannot do media and he can't possibly carry any state. Whether he can crack the 15% barrier to even get delegates is a question, but he's not likely to walk off with more than a couple dozen, at most.

The other complicating factor is that all the Democratic contests award delegates proportionately--there's no winner-take-all contests like on the GOP side. That means that even in New York, Hillary will have to cede some delegates to Obama, while Obama likewise will give up some delegates in Illinois to Hillary. That factor makes it difficult for either candidate to single out particular states for special attention.

In effect, the Democrats are hosting a national primary on February 5. But if it's close, say one candidate gets 45% of the vote and the other gets 40% (the rest going to Edwards and other forms of wasted votes), then their delegate totals at the end of the day are going to be very close. Edwards, if he can pick up enough delegates, could become a spoiler.

The other spoiler is the Democratic Super-Delegates--various elected and party officials who aren't bound by the primary/caucus votes.

Right now, we don't see February 5 being decisive for either Hillary or Obama, with one exception. Obama has a shot, at least, of running the table--SC, Nevada and Florida--before Feb. 5, which would give him sufficient momentum to score a big enough victory on Super Duper Tuesday to propel him, eventually, to the nomination. (The same would apply to Hillary is she ran the table, but we just don't see her winning SC).

As with the Republican side, we'll update this analysis after Saturday's contests in SC and Nevada and see if the picture is any clearer.

Your Complete Guide To Super-Duper Tuesday: The Republicans

With Mitt Romney's win in Michigan last night, it's pretty clear the Republican field will traipse on through to the mega-contests on February 5--"Super Duper Tuesday"--without any clear leader. (Caveat: if McCain wins SC and Florida, he could re-emerge as the GOP favorite.)

Let's assume that Huckabee wins SC and either Giuliani wins Florida or it's so close as to be a four (or five)-way tie.

That then sets up a HUGE day for Republicans on Feb. 5 (it likely also will be a big day for Dems--we'll get to them in a later post). What to expect? Below, we go state-by-state, making your job as easy as sitting in a recliner and watching the Super Bowl.

First, a couple observations. 1. No candidate in the GOP race has the funds left to overwhelm his competitors in the Super Duper Tuesday races. There's simply too many states, including the massive media markets of New York and California. Nor is there time between Florida--on January 29--and the Feb. 5 mega-races for any candidate to do any meaningful retail campaigning. That means Florida is important from a momentum standpoint, but Florida will only get you so far.

2. The rules for awarding delegates vary considerably from state to state--we sort those out below as we handicap the races.

Overview

On February 5, nineteen states will hold presidential nominating primaries/caucuses for both parties, and two states--Montana and West Virginia--will hold Republican state conventions to make their picks. Roughly 40% of all delegates to the GOP national convention in September will be selected in these contests, including large numbers in New York and California. (Rougly 1081 delegates are at stake, although arcane rules in the various states mean that some of these won't actually be allocated on Feb. 5.)

No Republican candidate has any chance of sweeping, or even coming close to sweeping, the Super Duper Tuesday primaries. All five of the major GOP contenders have at least one easy win: their home states. Romney gets Massachusetts; Huckabee gets Arkansas; Giuliani gets NY; Thompson--if he makes it this far--gets Tennessee; and McCain gets Arizona.

As we see below, the rest of the states divide out across the field, with California and Illinois being the two largest contested prizes of the day.

Who'll Win What

We'll update this as we get closer to Super Duper Tuesday, but as of now, here's how the races stack up by candidate. Numbers in parentheses are the total number of delegates from that state.

Romney: Wins Massachusetts (43) and Utah (36). Utah is a great win, because it's a winner take all state and has a lot of bonus delegates for its past GOP loyalty. Massachusetts awards its delegates proportionately, so Mitt may have to share a few delegates with other candidates--probably McCain and Giuliani. Romney has a shot at Montana (25), but Montana is picking from a closed convention of roughly 3000 invited Republican insiders. Otherwise, Romney's only other pick-ups are from individual congressional districts in, possibly, California (173) and maybe Illinois (70).

Huckabee: Wins Arkansas (34), Alabama (48) Georgia (72), and Oklahoma (41). If he gets 50% of the vote in homestate Arkansas (no guarantee of that), it becomes winner take all; otherwise, he may have to share a few delegates with McCain or maybe Thompson. Georgia, which is a big prize--it's so red state that is has a large number of bonus delegates, giving it the third highest delegate total of the day--awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. Huckabee should get everything in the rural parts of the state, but may give up a district or two around Atlanta. Alabama is like Georgia--winner-take-all by district. Oklahoma is a closer call, but if Huckabee can do well, it's also winner-take-all by congressional district, so he could sweep.

The Huckster has a shot at delegates in Montana (25)--there's a good chance the evangelical right makes up a big percentage of those GOP convention insiders--and maybe West Virginia (30--only 18 of which will be selected Feb. 5), which also has a convention. He could also pick up delegates in various congressional districts around the country that have high proportions of evangelicals and homeschoolers, like downstate Illinois.

Giuliani: Rudy should win New York (101) and New Jersey (52), both of which are winner take all states. He also has a good shot at Connecticut (30), which he and Romney will have to fight it out over. IF Giuliani wins Florida, his chances in Connecticut go up, but if Romney bests him in Florida, then we'd give the edge to the Mittster. In any event, Connecticut is winner-take-all, so it's worth the fight for both of them.

Otherwise, Giuliani has a shot at Illinois (70) and Delaware (18), but we think both states will be hotly contested between Rudy, Mitt and McCain. Delaware is winner-take-all, but Illinois is a delegate selection contest, meaning candidates can easily divide up the spoils. Indeed, we think Giuliani (IF he comes out of Florida viable), Romney, McCain and Huckabee will all come out of Illinois with some delegates. Giuliani also has a shot at some California congressional districts.

McCain: Here's where it gets tough for the old warhorse. His only sure bet is Arizona (53), which is winner-take-all. McCain has no real regional base in the party--his is more nationally oriented. Still, McCain can come out of the day with a large number of delegates from individual congressional districts--in states that award delegates that way--around the country. His best bets for pick-ups are delegate rich California (173) and Illinois (70).

Thompson: The Fredster doesn't have much of a shot, unless he outright wins South Carolina, and even then it's hard to see his path. However, if he stays in through Feb. 5, he should win his homestate of Tennessee (55), which awards delegates proportionately, except for winner-take-all in any congressional district where a candidate polls 50% or better. If we were Fred, we'd stay in, because those delegates could be a big bargaining chip in a deadlocked convention, and, of course, Fred could still emerge from such a deadlock as everyone's second choice.

What does that leave as openly contested?

Alaska (29): Alaska is caucusing. The delegates will probably get split up between three or four candidates.

California (173): These delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee should all have a shot at some of these delegates. The statewide winner gets all--eleven--of the at-large/bonus delegates.

Colorado (46): Colorado is also caucusing. McCain should do well here, but Huckabee and Romney could also collect delegates.

Delaware (18): Winner-takes-all, so worth the fight between Giuliani, McCain and maybe Romney.

Illinois (70): Delegate selection, will be roughly proportional, so count on McCain, Giuliani, Romney and maybe Huckabee (downstate) to have an opportunity to make a few pick-ups.

Minnesota (41): Another caucus state, so expect roughly proportional distribution. McCain, Huckabee, Romney, maybe Giuliani, could collect delegates.

Missouri (58): Winner-takes-all and up for grabs. Worth contesting by Huckabee, McCain.

Montana (25): Totally insider system--closed statewide convention where the winner takes all. McCain, Romney and Huckabee should all contest this one.

North Dakota (26): Winner-takes-all. Huckabee could get this if he gets the evangelicals out in the cold; McCain has a shot, too. Maybe Romney?

West Virginia (30): Statewide convention, where the winner-takes-all in a multiple ballot process. Interesting! There will be a runoff amongst the top three candidates, then, if none gets a majority, another run-off among the top two. Winner-takes-all of 18 delegates, the other 12 to be awarded later in a primary. This could go any which way, depending on how losers' delegates pick their second choices. It could come down to who West Virginia Republicans dislike the least.

Conclusions

As you can see, there's no scenario that greatly favors any of the four most viable GOP candidates (sorry, Fred). More likely than not, each one gets some delegates, and it's doubtful any one of them would pick up more than 35% of the delegates at stake on February 5. It's almost impossible for anyone to get 50% of those delegates.

For example, if Giuliani does well, and wins NY, NJ, Connecticut and Delaware, plus some delegates in Illinois and California, he could haul in as many as 250 delegates--a little less than 25% of the total awarded on the day. Rudy's problem is that he runs well in blue states, which have few bonus delegates and thus are disproportionately small in the GOP world.

Likewise, if Huckabee does well, sweeping up Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and even Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota and Missouri, he'd have 334 delegates--a little less than 35% of the day's take.

A good day for Romney would be Mass., Utah, Montana, Connecticut and decent blocks of delegates from California and Illinois, (say 25%), which would put him around 200 delegates.

And a good day for McCain would be Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Missouri, Montana, West Virginia and a good haul from California and Illinois and a few more from other proportional states, still giving him less than 300 delegates.

[Each of the candidates above could reap another 50-100 delegates from various proportional contests.]

In other words, unless someone comes out of the next three contests--SC, Nevada and Florida--with real momentum, the prospect for Republicans to have a nominee by February 6 is pretty small. The only ones who could get that kind of momentum are (1) McCain, by winning SC and Florida, or (2) Huckabee, by doing the same thing. And both of them have fairly large "anti" contingents awaiting them even if they do pull off such a mini-sweep.

As we said, we'll update this analysis after the SC and Nevada contests over the weekend.