Will Bob Barr's Libertarian Run Impact The Presidential Race?

Over the weekend, conservative--and occasionally colorful--former Georgia Republican representative Bob Barr earned the nomination of the Libertarian Party to run for President.

Barr has at least the potential to impact the presidential race come November, although had the Libertarians nominated Ron Paul the effect would likely be much greater.

The conventional wisdom is that Barr hurts the Republicans and John McCain more than the Democratic nominee. That's probably true. Indeed, since many Republicans seem to view McCain as nothing more than a warmed-over Democrat, a serious alternative candidate with solid libertarian value could prove quite appealing to some members of the GOP.

Will Barr run as a true Libertarian, or will he run as a true Republican? If you talk to some Republicans, they will say the real reason the party is doing so poorly is that it has abandoned it's own core principles. There's some truth to that, but that's not really why the party is doing so poorly--the real reason is incompetence, especially at the very top.

In any event, Barr--a disaffected Republican himself--may use the Libertarian platform to espouse a conservative philosophy that is more in tune with "traditional" GOP values, i.e., small government, low taxes, free markets. If he gets entangled in religious right "values" issues, however, he'll lose the support of true libertarians: yes, they believe in religious freedom, but that means not imposing evangelical beliefs on the rest of the population (which, we believe, is one reason the GOP has lost it's mojo).

There is certainly room in this country for a candidate or party that espouses reduced government spending, lower taxes, simpler regulation, extreme caution about engaging in foreign adventures, while also being relatively liberal on social issues.

Where would Barr have the biggest impact? Probably in the the mountain west, where many voters with libertarian tendencies have gone with the GOP in the past, only to be dissatisfied with the results. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, there are signs that he can make Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and perhaps a few other western states pretty competitive. If Barr siphons off 3-4% of McCain's vote in those states, things could get very interesting.

Barr might also have an impact in the upper south battleground states of Virginia and North Carolina, although the Republicans most unhappy with McCain in those states are social conservatives, not true libertarians.

For the Libertarian Party, Barr offers the potential for greater media exposure and fundraising appeal than some unknown party insider.

If we going to bet on it right now, however, we'd say Barr's impact will be pretty minimal. Now, ask us how many times we've been right this electoral season!

Will Bob Barr Hurt--or Help--McCain?

Former very conservative GOP Georgia congressman Bob Barr has announced his intention to run for President on the Libertarian Party ticket.

At least one pundit is out there wondering if Barr's run will hurt John McCain by giving disaffected Republican conservatives an alternative to the heresies of the straight-talking Senator from Arizona. (See "Barr Fight" in The American Spectator.)

But maybe Barr ends up HELPING McCain. (This all assumes that Barr obtains the Libertarian Party nomination, which is no sure thing--for our purposes here, however, let's assume he gets it.)

Yes, it's true that many in the conservative wing of the GOP don't really like McCain, viewing him as far too moderate and accommodationist. But let's face it, once the Democrats nominate either Hillary or Obama, McCain will look plenty conservative. Are there really that many Republicans who will throw away their votes--especially in key swing states--on the Libertarian nominee?

On the other hand, many independent voters like McCain precisely because he's not afraid to thumb his nose at GOP idealogues. To attract those voters, it may be useful to McCain to have someone running to his right, just to remind them of his more moderate views. The battle this Fall will certainly be in the middle, not on the fringes, especially in battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

We're not saying Barr's candidacy doesn't pose risks for McCain. Certainly, if he's forced to tack right, it will hurt him. Furthermore, if Barr's candidacy were to inspire some other fairly well-known conservatives (say a Tom Tancredo) to mount independent campaigns, the effect could be significant. McCain's strategists will be well aware of the Nader effect in 2000, where Nader's votes exceeded the margin of Al Gore's "defeat" in Florida.

If nothing else, we welcome Barr's entry into the race because it gives us political bloggers yet one more item to speculate upon rampantly.

Common Ground With . . . Bob Barr?!

Bob Barr is a hard-right wing former representative from Georgia. We doubt there's much we would agree on.

It's always pleasant, however, when someone from the other side surprises you with an unexpectedly enlightened position.

And so, today, we have Bob Barr writing on the op-ed page of the Wall Street Journal, in "Don't Ask, Who Cares," to chastise the GOP Presidential wannabes who, in their anti-gay pandering, refused even to endorse lifting the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays.

Barr says "we can no longer afford to bar gays from the military" and even goes so far as state the proposition that "equal treatment of gay and lesbian service members is about as conservative a position as one cares to articulate." While we doubt many conservatives agree with him on the latter point--and indeed Barr's virulent brand of hard-core conservatism is in part responsible for the cowardly positions of the Republican Prez candidates--we're happy to see some realization on the right that discouraging qualified gays from military service is a self-defeating proposition.