Explaining The Trump "Phenomenon" With George Wallace

Many political pundits have tried to explain the Trump "phenomenon", i.e., his staying power atop the GOP polls despite statements that would sink many another candidate.

The explanation is really not that difficult.  Donald Trump has cornered the George Wallace vote.  In most years that would not seem like much, but in this unusual election year the Wallace vote has taken on a disproportionate impact in the GOP primaries.

Few will recall that in 1968 George Wallace ran for president on an avowedly racist, segregationist platform.  It was also a populist platform economically.  His appeal was largely limited to lower class whites of more limited education, but he nonetheless received nearly 14% of the vote nationwide, and carried five southern states.

Back in the 1960's and 1970's, many Wallace type voters identified themselves as Democrats, for historical reasons.  They tended to either stay out of national elections, or vote Republican, particularly if someone like a Goldwater was running.  Many more were independents.  These days, the parties have re-aligned, and Wallace type of voters are more firmly in the GOP camp (although some are still independents) to both the benefit and detriment of the Republican Party.




Notwithstanding that realignment, Wallace voters have had a fairly limited impact on Republican presidential nominating contests.  In a typical election year, with maybe three serious GOP candidates pursuing the presidential nomination, the Wallace type vote would not be so evident.  A leading "centrist" candidate, such as a Romney or McCain, would have roughly 60% of the vote in polls in such a contest, and a couple other more right wing candidates might carve up the Wallace vote, maybe one getting 16% and the other getting 10%.  In such a contest, the Wallace voters are out there, but they in no way dominate, or even significantly affect, the course of the race.

This year is unusual.  There are more than a dozen candidates, with no heir apparent.  Trump went right out of the gate for the Wallace type voters, proclaiming in his first speech that Mexico was sending rapists and murderers across the border.  He has continued to make a series of bigoted and racist comments since then, and he has stayed at a pretty steady 20-25% in national polls of Republicans.  (In head to head polls against Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, however, Trump typically polls the worst of the leading Republicans.)

But remember, Republicans make up roughly one third of the electorate.  So 25% of that one third is less than ten percent of the overall electorate--basically, the Wallace vote.  These voters have always been around.  They probably always will be (European democracies also have their hard core right wing nativist political groups, who usually get around 10% of the vote, barring something unusual.)

Trump is the first serious candidate for President since Wallace to overtly court bigoted voters.  Unlike Wallace, whose credentials as a racist were quite well established before he ran for President, Trump showed few signs of outright bigotry before running for office (he certainly looked like a run of the mill sexist, but not a bigot).  Trump is no dummy--we suspect that he made a very calculated move to corral the nativist right, and has been fighting to hold on to it ever since.  Of course, that makes him practically unelectable in a general election, but maybe he figured that would be a bridge to cross later.

In any event, Trump's "enduring" appeal is not that difficult to explain.  Anyone can put together the hard core Wallace vote if they are willing to be overtly racist and bigoted.  Few have tried, because it is not typically a winning strategy in the long run.  But don't expect Trump's support to erode or fade--as long as he keeps up what others view as outrageous statements, he will maintain the Wallace vote--they have nowhere else to go.

Is Football A Barbaric Sport?

Let me preface this post by saying that I enjoy football as much as any red-blooded American, and always have.

But these days, I have a feeling that within 100-200 years, humanity will view American football with the same disdain we have today for the gladiatorial contests of Rome.

We are increasingly seeing the sheer brutality of football, in the form of serious brain damage done to a large majority of players.  Not just professional players, either.  A recent study [http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/new-87-deceased-nfl-players-test-positive-for-brain-disease/] found that 79 percent of ALL football players (and 96 percent of pros) had evidence of CTE--chronic traumatic encephalopathy--which is a brain disease.

Before the recent revelations about the problems with concussions and CTE in football players, all we, the fans, could really see is the more typical daily carnage of a football field--torn ligaments and muscles and the occasional more serious injury requiring a player to be carted off the field.  We could live with this.

But can we--should we--live with a sport that practically guarantees its participants will suffer debilitating brain injuries?  It certainly makes me uncomfortable, and I think if we could visualize it happening during the games, we wouldn't let it continue to happen.

We can't continue to ignore the issue.  I doubt that a technological solution--better helmets, etc. is going to emerge.  Nor is it likely that rule changes can be effected that will maintain the integrity of the game while providing effective protection to its participants.

(This same issue may be lurking for another sport--futbol, or soccer--but the evidence so far is inconclusive),

There is big, big, big money on football, especially professional and college ball, so it will take awhile to work through to the conclusion that football is too dangerous to be viable.  I, for one, however, am becoming increasingly queasy every time I tune in to watch my favorite teams, literally, butt heads.

Why Donald Trump Won't Be President

This is part one of an examination of why Donald Trump will not be elected President.

When it comes to voters, PT Barnum's adage rings true:  you can fool some of the voters all of the time; you can fool all of the voters some of the time; but you can't fool all of the voters all of the time.

For now, Trump has some of the voters fooled.  Pretty much, he has the voters who (a) tend not to vote; (b) are angry white male bigots and misogynysts; and (c) fall for anyone who is "not a politician".  That is not an insignificant portion of the population, but it is far from an electoral majority.  It is more or less the George Wallace faction of American politics.

As we will see in a later part, however, Trump illustrates why we SHOULD have politicians who are "politicians."  Non-politicians make terrible political leaders and public servants.  Trump has never served in any elective office, and he won't serve as President.

Let's start with Part 1 of why Trump won't be elected:  he is a spoiled brat bully.  Most voters don't know Trump's personal history--YET.  At some point, at least one of his Republican opponents, or a super-PAC aligned with one, or the press, will start to get this out.

Trump is no friend of the "working man."  He was born into a very wealthy family and given everything as a result.  He never had to work his way up from nothing.  And he hasn't required HIS kids to do real work either--instead, he has continued with a family dynasty typical of the Old European feudal days, where his children--Ivanka, Donald Jr., Eric and Baron--are given key positions in his various enterprises regardless of their qualifications.

Trump is also a thin-skinned bully.  If anyone crosses him, he either fires them or sues them.  He uses a phalanx of lawyers to intimidate his foes, and if the lawyers get out of line, he sues them too!  Except for his family members, no one who works for Trump is safe--they can be and regularly are fired for the most trivial reasons.

Someone who is thin-skinned is not going to make a good President.  The President has to get along with Congress if he or she wants to get anything done.  Trump is used to working without any checks or balances--the most he has to deal with are Boards of Directors, which in his case are mostly his own children or very loyal subordinates.

He also has to get along with other world leaders.  They don't owe him anything, and they don't need to defer to him.  Pissing off the rest of the world really isn't going to do anything to "make America great again."  It's a new world, Donald--America can't just go around invading everyone.  Indeed, our failed invasion of Iraq, while also pursuing a legitimate war in Afghanistan (both with ALLIES) showed the limits of our military power.  We have no real economic or military leverage over China, and we aren't going to go to war against Mexico, which happens to be a very important trade partner.

Trump would also need to appoint a cabinet--serious people to lead important executive agencies of the federal government.  What, is he going to appoint Ivanka to State, Donald Jr. to Defense, Eric to Treasury, Tiffany (who is in college) to Labor, and Barron (who is 9) to Education?  Is he going to continuously hire and fire cabinet members who disagree with him or cross him in any way?  He has to get along with these people too.

Bottom line:  being a thin-skinned bully does not a good President make.

Next:  why being a billionaire and not "beholden" to people making donations is a bad thing.

Flash Boys--Massive Fraud and Racketeering On Wall Street

If you are an investor in the U.S. stock markets, you need to read Michael Lewis's latest book, Flash Boys:  A Wall Street Revolt.

Revolt is right--you will be revolted by the utter greed and criminality of a small band of Wall Street gangsters who have rigged the market to skim off hundreds of billions of dollars that properly belong to investors.

In some ways, this is nothing new--shysters on Wall Street have been rigging up similar schemes for as long as stock markets have existed.  Still, it makes you sick what these guys have been up to.

Basically, Lewis shows how a group of high frequency traders (HFT's) have, since 2007, rigged the market so that their computers can skim a penny or two off every trade.  That may not sound like much, but in a market that trades trillions of dollars every year, it amounts to hundreds or billions of dollars in ill gotten gains.

What makes you really sick is the complicity of the large banks that place the trades, supposedly on behalf of the investors.  The large banks (like Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse) got their "cut" of the action, and so, just as they did in the mortgage crisis, they screwed the people they were supposed to represent.

In typical Lewis style, the story is told through the eyes of a few key participants, a band of heroes that rebelled against the system that everyone else went along with.  The story moves along at a good clip, and is even fun at times.  It leaves you wondering about the complete misdirection of scientific and technical talent into what is essentially a vast criminal enterprise.

Will justice be done?  Doubtful--no one went to jail over the mortgage crisis, and, as Lewis notes, the only person to go to jail so far in this sordid episode is a poor Russian programmer who became a pawn of the powers that be at Goldman Sachs.  It makes you really wonder--is the U.S. justice system really rigged to protect the rich?

At a minimum, the Justice Department should launch a criminal investigation, while also considering a civil racketeering lawsuit to capture the billions in illicit profits ripped off by this gang of hoodlums.

Public Restrooms Need Automatic Doors

These days, you can get into a public restroom and do your business without touching anything (at least with your hands).

The toilet flushes automatically.

The water faucet comes on automatically (if you flail your hands around enough).

The paper towels come out, or the hand drier starts, without touching anything.

But then BAM--you're faced with that germ ridden door to get back out!!

If the door opens outward, without a latch, you can always use your elbow or hip to get out; if not, you might be able to get away with crooking a pinkie around the handle.  Otherwise, all that non-touching is wasted as you grab the doorknob to get back to the real world.

Why not have automatic doors in public restrooms?  Then the cycle will be complete!

Travel Arrangement Woes

Much as we love the ability to make our own travel arrangements online, there are times when we long for the olden days of travel agents!

We had three instances lately of weird/bad things happening while making online travel plans.

The first was with Expedia.  While researching flights for a trip to Greensboro, we were surprised to see that there were no nonstops from the Washington region.  On previous trips, we'd had a few nonstop options.  Deciding not to take "no" for an answer, we went directly to the airline websites for United and US Airways.  Turned out there were several nonstop options, some fairly convenient, we might add.  Now we don't trust Expedia's listing of available flights.

This seems consistent with a more general trend that travel websites such as Expedia, Orbitz, etc. really aren't too interested in selling you flights--they want you to book hotels, cars and vacation packages.  Flights apparently are a loss leader.  (Or maybe the airlines don't want you booking through these convenient sites that show you the competition.)

The second problem came while we were directly on the US Airways website, looking at some flight options for Florida.  We weren't quite sure if we'd be leaving from the DC area, or Charlotte (due to a potential meeting), so we had one tab on our browser looking at DC flights, and another at Charlotte.  After deciding that DC was the way to go, we started booking the flight.  We clicked the flights we wanted, went through payment, etc.  After confirming everything--and paying--we saw that the flights that were booked were from Charlotte.  We had to call US Airways and get everything changed.  They politely waived the change fee.

Later, we tried an experiment where we again had two tabs open, looking at flights to the same destination from two different departure cities.  We booked a DC flight right up to the confirmation and sure enough, the website conflated the flights with the other city.  We then just closed the browser before paying, cancelling everything.

Lesson learned--don't try booking a flight on US Airways with two tabs open.  We haven't tried this with other airline websites.

The third problem happened with Orbitz, which we thought we'd give a try given disappointment with Expedia.  What a disaster that was!  With an impending snowstorm threatening airline havoc, we decided to move a Florida golf trip one day later.  The Orbitz website took us through a series of steps after we clicked on a link to change our flight.  After that series, which took a few minutes and appeared to put us on the cusp of booking our new flight, we reached a final screen that instructed to call an Orbitz agent.  Aaaauuuuggghhh!

Ok, so we called.  Recording says high volume due to weather delays, etc.  We enter a bunch of information over the automated phone system.  Finally, agent comes on--of course she has no access to what we entered while waiting.  With the agent, we basically start all over.

Not sure if the agent was incompetent, or what, but she was taking a long time.  Really long.  We had the US Airways website (just one tab!) up and knew exactly what we wanted.  We said we already knew about the change fee.  Nonetheless, she put us on hold to "research" the change fee and then research the fare restrictions.

Finally, about 50 minutes into the call (including waiting at the front end), she quoted a new fare--it was about $1000 higher than what the website said.  After a few moments looking at the website, we realized she had booked us into a flexible fare, instead of non-refundable (which was the original fare).

We asked her if she could just cancel the ticket (and give us a credit) so we could just book it over the US Airways website.  THEN she told us we could just go ahead and change the ticket on the website since we had a confirmation number.

Click, we hung up, after telling her she really was not at all helpful.  Five minutes later we'd made all the necessary changes on the US Airways website, with it costing us $120 difference (mainly the change fee coming back--the change fee outbound was waived due to the weather).

Lesson learned:  don't use Orbitz!

Who knows, if we learn enough other lessons, we might just hold ourselves out as travel agents to the less web savvy traveler!

Gov. McDonnell Done In By Wife's Greed

We were quite sad to see the news of former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell's indictment on corruption charges.  On policy matters, McDonnell turned out to be relatively moderate, and he got some important things done, not the least of which was transportation funding.

Now it looks like he can add to his list of accomplishments ethics reform in Virginia!

McDonnell's downfall is largely attributable to his wife, Maureen.  It is not exactly clear how and when Maureen McD. became acquainted with Jonnie Williams, the former CEO of a small pharmaceutical supplement company called Star Scientific, but that "friendship" has proven quite costly.

(A number of years ago, the Curmudgeon ran into Williams and Star Scientific in some tobacco litigation, when the company was peddling what it marketed as a "safer" tobacco.  It was clear then that Williams and his company had some strange ideas.  Williams is a "big" personality--the kind that most wise people instinctively avoid.)

If the detailed allegations in the indictment against the McDonnells are true, then Maureen McD. apparently saw Williams as someone all too willing to provide her and her husband with extravagant gifts, while Williams saw the McDonnells as potentially willing stooges to shill for his company's questionable products.  Like a sugar daddy relationship for power and influence, instead of sex.  (We wonder how many other business executives received similar approaches from Maureen McD.--most would run at the first hint of such an obviously improper request.)

Of course, it's nothing new for a governor to promote a homegrown business--it's just part of the job at times--and it's typical for such a business to show a little appreciation, perhaps with a golf outing or a very nice meal.  But if the allegations against the McDonnells are true, they should clearly have known that they had crossed the line, big time.

In this case, Maureen McD. allegedly repeatedly went to Williams for favors.  These included cash and "loans" for as much as $140,000, and many expensive gifts, including thousands of dollars worth of designer clothing.  We love the story of Maureen telling Williams that she needed his help to purchase clothes for a swank dinner in NY.  According to the indictment, Williams then accompanied Maureen on a shopping trip where she spent more than $10,000 on designer clothes and accessories from Oscar de la Renta and Louis Vuitton.  We can just see the two of them having a good ol' time on a whirlwind tour of NY's high rent shopping district.  We wonder what the Governor knew of all this at the time.  (You also wonder if there wasn't more to her relationship with Williams, but that's pure speculation at this point.)

Maureen also asked Williams to purchase the Governor a Rolex watch as a "surprise" present.  Surprise--you're going to jail.  Thanks a lot, honey!

Maureen allegedly told Williams on more than one occasion that she and Bob were "broke".  Well, Maureen, people who are broke shouldn't be shopping at Oscar de la Renta and Louis Vuitton!

We're not absolving the Governor on this--while his wife led the charge, he let it happen, one way or the other.  And we certainly don't buy his claim that he did nothing wrong, at least if most of the allegations can be proven.  There appears to be plenty of evidence that the Governor did favors for Williams and Star Scientific that went well beyond what any other business could expect.

And it's silly to believe that Williams, who is not some childhood or lifelong friend of the McDonnells, was just doing all this out of the goodness of his heart.  He certainly expected something for it.  In the usual case, a politician will ask someone like Williams to make donations to his or her campaign, and to campaigns of like minded politicians or organizations.  While we accept this kind of official corruption all the time, providing personal benefits to state officials in exchange for influence likely violates the law.

It is unfortunate that the McDonnells showed such gross lapses in judgment.  Up to this point, Virginia had a good reputation for "clean" politics, at least relative to other jurisdictions (such as Maryland, or NJ).  It is now up to the Commonwealth's legislative leaders to push through reforms to discourage this type of behavior from state officials in the future.

Tomorrow Is Washington's "Winter Temperature Solstice"

With another "polar vortex" working it's way into our region, we're sure some of you are wondering when it's going to warm up again.

Well, have no fear, the winter temperature solstice is upon us as of tomorrow.

What do we mean by "winter temperature solstice"?  Well, that's the point in the winter when the average temperature reaches its lowest point--kind of like the shortest day of the year.  So, tomorrow (Jan. 22) the average high temperature in DC is 43 degrees, and the average low is 28 degrees.  (Forget about the fact that the forecast high tomorrow is 18 degrees--we're talking averages here!)  The next day, Jan. 23, the average high will jump up to 44 degrees, and the day after the average low will go up to 29 degrees.  So, on average, from here on out--until mid-July--the average temperature will be rising.  Hooray.

Of course, our winter temperature solstice is not as reliable as the real winter solstice, which is absolute.  It may very well be colder--or warmer, but not this year--than average on Jan. 22.  But you get the picture--we've turned the corner, in terms of temperature averages.

It's interesting that, as a general rule, in Washington, DC (we're not sure if this holds up in other locales), the temperature runs about 30 days behind daylight.  In other words, it takes about 30 days after the shortest day for us to get to the lowest temperature, and it takes about 30 days after the longest day for us to get to the highest temperature.

This is why Fall in Washington is usually much nicer than Spring--in Spring, as the days get longer, the temperature is lagging a month behind.  Conversely, in Fall, as the days get increasingly shorter, mild temperatures continue to prevail.

Don't believe us?  The vernal equinox (the day on which the amount of daylight equals the amount of nighttime) is March 20 this year.  On that date, the average high temperature is 57 degrees.  The autumnal equinox will occur on September 23, when the average high is a much balmier 77 degrees.  It's not until late November that the average high gets back down to 57!

There you have it--it certainly is not going to feel any warmer over the next few days.  In fact, it is likely to be the coldest spell of the season, accompanied by lingering snow from today's storm.  But ever so gradually, the atmosphere is warming up, with temperatures starting to rise.  Before long it will be Groundhog Day, and we'll really know when Spring is going to start!

Time To Retire The Verizon Voicemail Lady

Every day, millions of people are required to wait their way through Verizon's forced appendage to all voicemail messages with instructions about how to leave a voicemail message.

Is this really necessary?  Of course not--it's 2014 and people know how to leave a message without a nice female voice telling them to "please record your message" at the tone, and then either hang up or press "1" for more options.

Some messages add even more--letting you know that if you press a particular number, you can leave a "callback message."  I asked a sampling of friends if they had ever left a callback message for anyone--none had; most (including me) admitted to not even knowing what a callback message is.

Recently, I heard one message (might not have been Verizon) explaining that you could press another number to leave a text message.  Well, if I wanted to send a text message, I would've just done that.

This Verizon addendum adds 6-10 seconds to each voicemail greeting.  That means that if there were just 1 million messages a day (we're sure that's on the low side), then over the course of a year there would be 365 million messages extended by up to 10 seconds, for 3.65 billion seconds of lost time, which is more than 42,000 days of lost productivity.

I looked on the web for ways to remove the Verizon appendage, but it looks like Verizon doesn't give you that option.  (If I'm wrong, let me know!)

At one time, when Verizon charged callers by the minute, adding this addendum may have made economic sense (only for Verizon) by extending calls into an extra minute.  But with most callers now on unlimited plans, it doesn't even make sense for Verizon.

It's time to retire the voicemail instructions from the nice Verizon lady.  At a minimum, Verizon should offer it's subscribers a way to opt out.

Shame on VA Schools Closed Due to Cold Weather

Bah on the administrators of many Virginia school districts today, which are closed due to a little bit of cold air.  And congrats to the leaders of schools in DC and MD for showing some backbone by calling it a regular school day.

The facts:  school systems in Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford Counties, among others, are closed today due to very cold weather.  Arlington and Alexandria schools opened two hours late.  Across the river, however, where it was a tad colder, DC school and Montgomery County schools opened on time. They made the right call--their Virginia counterparts should be ashamed.

Yes, it is cold today, with temperatures dropping to levels not seen in nearly 20 years.  But 20 years ago, this type of weather was not that uncommon--happened about every other winter, in January, and usually lasted several days.  And it did NOT result in closing schools.

School administrators are the biggest wimps in the world when it comes to weather.  And very shortsighted. Someone should point out to them that it costs a lot of money--many millions of dollars--to shut down schools.  Parents have to make alternative work arrangements, or miss work entirely, and the schools themselves incur huge costs in lost productivity.

Further, just because kids aren't in school doesn't mean they aren't potentially exposed to cold, or snow, or whatever reason the schools decided to shut down.  In many ways, the kids are probably less safe out of school than in school.

But let's look at today's decision.  In many other parts of the country, winter temperatures in the single digits are fairly common.  Yet, they cope.  All it takes is dressing sensibly, making sure to cover up exposed skin. Hats and gloves, a scarf, and an extra layer of clothing beyond what you'd wear on a morning with temps in the 20's (common around here) is all that is needed.  Of course, you don't STAY outside for long periods of time.  A little common sense goes a long way.

So, if schools in other parts of our country, including big east coast cities like Philly, NYC and Boston, can regularly deal with this level of cold, and if DC area schools could regularly deal with this 20 years ago without closing, why the big panic today?

Part of it is media hype.  Nothing is more over hyped than the weather, because it sells newspapers, blogs and local television news.  Around here, it is common for television newscasters and weather blogs such as the WaPo's Capital Weather Gang, to trumpet potential snow a week out based on some not particularly reliable weather model.  We haven't had an "official" snowstorm (as measured at Reagan National Airport) of more than 2" in three years here, yet the word "snow" comes up almost every day of winter in someone's "forecast."

School administrators need to learn to see through the hype.  Their working assumption should be that school will stay open unless it absolutely HAS to be closed--for example, if there is a blizzard.  A cold snap, or 2-4 inches of snow, should not be enough to waste millions of dollars.

Back To Blogging

Hi Everyone--

It's been awhile since I blogged regularly, but time to get back into it--hoping I'll also start writing again, whether a new novel or something non-fiction!

Early Voting Poll Results for 2012

One of the more interesting election innovations in recent years is the advent of "early voting".  Early voting rules vary considerably from state to state.  Many states now allow "no excuse" in person voting (meaning that unlike traditional absentee voting, you don't need a reason, such as being out of town, to vote early) at selected polling places as much as a month before election day; other states allow voters to mail in their ballots; and some have loosened their rules on absentee voting.

Political science Prof. Michael McDonald, at George Mason University, has been tracking early voting in recent years.  He estimates that 41 million Americans voted before election day in the 2008 presidential campaign, and that even more will do so in 2012.   While Prof. McDonald has done an excellent job tracking data from the states on early voters, a logical question is who benefits the most from early voting?

In 2008, the Curmudgeon supplemented Prof. McDonald's work by tracking pre-election polls that reported results for the subsets of their samples who had already voted.  In 2008, early voting clearly benefitted Obama and the Democrats; or perhaps it simply reflected the enthusiasm for Obama that led to his large victory over John McCain. 

Now, in 2012, we're once again tracking the pre-election polls and excerpting the data on early voters.  Below, you'll find the data organized in reverse chronological order for national polls and for each state in which there is data available (primarily swing states, as that's where most of the polls are conducted).  We hope you'll find the data useful.  New results in each update are highlighted in yellow.

At this point in the election, it is clear that, at least in swing states, Obama is again benefitting from the early vote, but not to the same extent as in 2008--just further confirming evidence that this is going to be a much closer election.  Winning the early vote doesn't mean winning the election, but it does reduce the amount of "get out the vote" work that needs to be done on election day, and avoids some problems, such as bad weather, that can reduce turnout on election day.

We think that over time, this poll data will be valuable in analyzing election trends.

NOTE:  We had a glitch with Blogger, as a result of which we lost quite a bit of data.  We've done our best to recreate what we can, but some poll data is probably missing, especially during the period between Oct. 20-Nov. 1.

NATIONAL POLLS

Nov. 4-5:  GWU/Politico--33% already voted
36% of Romney supporters and 33% of Obama supporters (not sure what this really means)

Nov. 3-5:  Rasmussen--??% already voted
43% Dem; 35% Rep.

Nov. 3-5:  Gravis--28% already voted
Obama 52%
Romney 44%

Nov. 1-5:  IPSOS Daily Tracking--41% (of likely voters) already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 45%

Nov. 1-4:  Daily KOS--23% already voted
Obama 53%
Romney 47%

Nov. 1-4: Democracy Corps--23% already voted (no breakdown by preference)

Oct. 31-Nov. 4:  IPSOS Daily Tracking--33% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 45%

Nov. 5:  ABC/WAPO--27% of national sample have voted; 35% have voted in eight swing states.

Oct. 31-Nov. 4:  Pew Research--34% already voted.
Obama 48%
Romney 46%

Oct. 29-Nov. 1:  GWU/Battleground--26% of sample has already voted; no breakdown.

Oct. 29--31:  Wash. Times/JZ Analytics--25% already voted.
Obama 53%
Romney 45%



Oct. 22-24: IPSOS Daily Tracking--17% of sample already voted

Obama 53%

Romney 42%
 

Oct. 21: ABC News/Wash. Post--4% of sample already voted; no breakdown of presidential preferences of those voters.

Oct. 18-21: Monmouth--12% of sample already voted
Obama 41%
Romney 44%

NOTE--this is the ONLY poll we've seen in 2012 or 2008 in which the Republican candidate had a lead in national early voting.
Oct. 15-19: IPSOS Daily Tracking--10% of sample already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 39%

Oct. 14-18: IPSOS Daily Tracking--10% of sample already voted

Obama 53%

Romney 44%
 

For comparison, the earliest national poll with such data in 2008 was conducted Oct. 25-28. In it, 18% of respondents had already voted, favoring Obama by 53%-43%.  The final national polls (taken in Nov. 2008) showed Obama up from between 1% and 19%, with 20-36% of the samples having already voted.

 

COLORADO EARLY VOTING

 

Nov. 3-5:  IPSOS--76% already voted
Obama 55%
Romney 42%

Nov. 2-4:  Keating--69% already voted
No breakdown of early voter preferences

Nov. 1-3:  IPSOS--60% already voted
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

Oct. 31-Nov. 2:  IPSOS--60% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 43%

Oct. 31:  Survey USA--?% voted

Obama 49%

Romney 46%

Oct. 29-31: IPSOS--61% already voted
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

 

Oct. 29:  Rasmussen--69% already voted

Obama 50%

Romney 47%

Oct. 25-28: ARG--31% already voted
Obama 47%
Romney 52%

Oct. 23-24: Purple Poll--40% already voted
Obama 58%
Romney 32%


For comparison, a poll taken by Public Policy Polling in 2008 as of Nov. 1 showed that 65% had already voted, favoring Obama by 58%-41% over McCain.

 

 

FLORIDA EARLY VOTING

 

Nov. 4-5:  Gravis--50% already voted
Obama 52%
Romney 47%

Nov. 3-5:  IPSOS--51% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 44%

Oct. 30-Nov. 2:  Mellman--48% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 41%

Nov. 1-3:  IPSOS--42% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 46%

Oct. 31-Nov. 2:  IPSOS--38% already voted

Obama 52%

Romney 45%

 

Oct. 31:  Quinnipiac--??% already voted

Obama 50%

Romney 44%

 

Oct. 29-31:  IPSOS--35% already voted

Obama 53%

Romney 45%

 

Oct. 25-27:  Survey USA--23% already voted

Obama 57%

Romney 42%

 

For comparison, the final Survey USA poll taken in Florida in 2008 (over the three days before the election) showed that 58% had already voted, by a margin of 58%-40% in favor of Obama.

 



GEORGIA EARLY VOTING

 

Nov. 1:  Better Georgia--46% already voted

No breakdown of preferences of early voters

 

Oct. 25-27:  Survey USA--28% already voted

Obama 48%

Romney 51%

 

INDIANA EARLY VOTING

 

Nov. 1:  Rasmussen--20% already voted

Obama 49%

Romney 47%

 

IOWA EARLY VOTING

Nov. 2-4:  ARG--44% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 46%

Nov. 3-4:  Public Policy Polling--47% already voted

Obama 61%

Romney 39%

 

Nov. 1-2: Grove--??% already voted
Obama 59%
Romney 33%

Oct. 30-Nov. 1:  Mellman--41% already voted
Obama 51%
Romney 36%



Nov. 1:  Gravis--34% already voted
Obama 63%
Romney 28%

Oct. 30: Rasmussen--42% of sample already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 39%

Oct. 29-30:  Public Policy Polling--42% already voted
Obama 64%
Romney 35%



Oct. 21: Rasmussen--31% of sample had already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 41%
 



Oct. 17-19: PPP--31% of sample had already voted
Obama 66%
Romney 32%

Oct. 18: NBC/WSJ--34% of likely voters and 28% of registered voters have already voted. No breakdown of who they voted for.





For comparison, in 2008, Survey USA conducted a poll on Oct. 29, at which point 32% had already voted, with Obama leading 69%-29%.

MICHIGAN EARLY VOTING

Nov. 4:  Mitchell Surveys--33% already voted
Obama 57%
Romney 41%

Oct. 31-Nov. 1: Grove--?% voted

Obama 49%

Romney 39%

MONTANA EARLY VOTING

 

 

Oct. 29: Rasmussen--49% already voted

Obama 49%

Romney 46%



NEVADA EARLY VOTING

Nov. 3-4:  Public Policy Polling--74% already voted
Obama 55%
Romney 44%

Oct. 23-29: Survey USA--43% already voted
Obama 52%
Romney 46%

Oct. 22-24: Public Policy Polling--34% already voted

Obama 61%
Romney 39%

Oct. 23: Rasmussen--35% already voted

Obama 51%

Romney 47%

For comparison, in 2008 Roper conducted a poll on Oct. 22-26 in which 51% of Nevadans had already voted, favoring Obama by 56%-33% over McCain.

NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY VOTING

 

 

Nov. 1:  Gravis--6% already voted

Obama 63%

Romney 37%

NEW JERSEY EARLY VOTING

Oct. 19: Survey USA--19% of sample already voted

Obama 63%

Romney 29%

 

NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING

 



Nov. 4-5:  Gravis--52% already voted
Obama 49%
Romney 47%

Nov. 3-4:  Public Policy Polling--62% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 45%

Oct. 29-31: Public Policy Polling--52% already voted
Obama 58%
Romney 41%

Oct. 29-30:  Survey USA--40% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 43%

Oct. 23-25:  Public Policy Polling--30% already voted
Obama 57%
Romney 42%

Oct. 21-26:  Elon U.--22% already voted
Obama 55%
Romney 37%

For comparison, in 2008, the final poll for Survey USA had 57% already voting, with Obama up 56%-41%; and the final Public Policy Polling survey had 63% already voting, with Obama up 55%-45%. This is one of the few states where Obama may be running ahead of his 2008 early voting totals.

PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTING

 

 

Nov. 4-5:  Gravis--3% already voted

Obama 61%

Romney 31%

OHIO EARLY VOTING 

Nov. 4-5: Gravis--30% already voted
Obama 55%
Romney 42%

Nov. 3-5:  IPSOS--38% already voted
Obama 59%
Romney 37%

Nov. 4: Rasmussen--40% already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 37%

Nov. 3-4: Public Policy Polling--34% already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 39%

Nov. 1-4:  Survey USA--33% already voted
Obama 58%
Romney 38%

Nov. 1-3:  IPSOS--36% already voted
Obama 61%
Romney 33%

Oct. 24-Nov. 3: Columbus Dispatch--37% already voted
Obama 57%
Romney 42%

Nov. 1-2:  Grove--??% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 39%

Oct. 31-Nov. 2:  IPSOS--33% already voted
Obama 59%
Romney 35%

Oct. 30-Nov. 1:  CNN--??% already voted
Obama 63%
Romney 35%

Nov. 1:  Rasmussen--40% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 41%

Oct. 30-Nov. 1:  CNN--?% already voted
Obama 63%
Romney 35%

Oct. 26-29:  Survey USA--25% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 40%

Oct. 29-31:  IPSOS--32% already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 32%

Oct. 29-30:  Public Policy Polling--33% already voted

Obama 62%

Romney 35%

 

Oct. 29-30:  CBS/Quinnipiac--?% voted

Obama 60%

Romney 34%
 

Oct. 28: Rasmussen--32% already voted
Obama 62%
Romney 36%
Note: Not sure how to square this result with the Rasmussen poll just three days earlier!!
 

Oct. 25: Rasmussen--35% already voted

Obama 52%

Romney 46%
 

Oct. 23-25--ARG--28% already voted

Obama 55%

Romney 44%

Oct. 23-25: Purple Strategies--26% already voted

Obama 58%

Romney 32%
 

Oct. 25: CNN--59% EXPECT to vote early, no breakdown beyond that.

Obama 59%

Romney 39%

Oct. 23: Rasmussen--31% already voted
Obama 53%
Romney 43%



Oct. 22-23: Time--20% already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 30%




Oct. 20-22: Survey USA--26% already voted
Obama 58%
Romney 39%



Oct. 21: Suffolk Univ.--20% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 41%

Oct. 21: CBS News--20% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 39%Oct. 18-20: Public Policy Polling--21% already voted
Obama 66%
Romney 34%

Oct. 16: Survey USA--18% already voted
Obama 57%
Romney 38%

Oct. 12-13. Public Policy Polling--19% already voted.
Obama 76%
Romney 24%

Oct. 5-8. Survey USA--11% of sample had already voted.
Obama 59%
Romney 39%

By comparison, the final Survey USA poll in Ohio in 2008 reported that 36% of Ohioans had already voted, favoring Obama by 60%-36% over McCain.  Obama ultimately carried Ohio by 51-47%.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTING

 

 

Nov. 3-5:  IPSOS--14% already voted

Obama 59%

Romney 39%

 

Nov. 1-2:  NBC/WSJ--15% already voted
Obama 59%
Romney 38%

Oct. 30-Nov. 2:  Mellman--10% already voted
Obama 53%
Romney 38%
 

Nov. 1-3:  IPSOS--11% already voted
Obama 53%
Romney 43%

Oct. 31-Nov. 2:  IPSOS--10% already voted

Obama 51%

Romney 45%

 

Oct. 29-31: IPSOS--13% already voted

Obama 68%

Romney 30%

 

Oct. 23-25:  Purple Strategies--9% already voted

Obama 47%

Romney 51%

 

For comparison, the final Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia in 2008 had 16% already voting, with Obama up by 63%-36% over McCain.

 

WASHINGTON EARLY VOTING

 

Oct. 18-31: KCTS-TV--33% already voted

Obama 60%

Romney 37%

 

For comparison, in 2008 Survey USA's final poll in Washington had 72% already voting, with Obama leading by 58%-39% over McCain.



WISCONSIN EARLY VOTING
 

Oct. 30-31:  Rasmussen--25% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 41%

Oct. 18: Rasmussen--???% already voted (Rasmussen doesn't say what % of sample had already voted)

Obama 43%

Romney 54%
 

By comparison, as of Oct. 29 in 2008, a Survey USA poll had 19% of Wisconsinites already voting, by a margin of 61%-34% for Obama.  

Ohio Early Voting Continues to Favor Obama Heavily

With Ohio becoming such a pivotal state in the now very tight race for President, numerous organizations are conducting polling of Buckeye state voters.  Ohio has early voting, and Ohio voters have been casting ballots now for several weeks. 

Many of the polls in Ohio report data on the preferences of those early voters.  We also have a pretty extensive archive of polls with similar data from the 2008 race.  So what can we conclude, so far?

First off, the early claim by Romney's campaign that they were running neck and neck with Obama in early voting clearly does not hold up to scrutiny.  We now have data from more than a dozen polls (all listed in reverse chronological order below) in Ohio, every one of which shows Obama with a significant lead over Romney among early voters, ranging from a high of 76%-24% to a low of 52%-46%.

Moreover, the margin of Obama's lead has not changed significantly as the number of early voters has increased over time.  For example, Survey USA has conducted four polls in Ohio during October.  In the first, Obama was ahead among early voters by 59%-39%; in the second it was 57%-38%; in the third it was 58%-39%, and in the most recent it was 56%-40%.

The most recent polls suggest that between a quarter and a third of Ohio likely voters have already gone to the polls, so Romney will have his work cut out for him come election day to make up that deficit.  In seeing how likely that is, it is instructive to look at the 2008 data.  When averaging the polls, it does appear that Obama's 2012 advantage among early voters is about 4 points lower than in 2008.  Since Obama won by 4% in 2008, this could be a very close race.  However, it appears that a greater percentage of voters are voting early this time around, so Romney has a smaller base to use on election day to climb back in it.

Finally, we can do a little head-to-head comparisons between 2008 and 2012 with polls taken by the same organizations.

Survey USA conducted polls in 2008 and 2012 that were concluded eight days before the election. In 2008, 22% of it's sample had already voted, favoring Obama by 56%-39% over McCain.  In 2012, 25% of the sample had already voted, favoring Obama by 56%-40% over Romney--basically no difference.

Likewise, Public Policy Polling conducted polls in 2008 and 2012 that were concluded about a week before the election.  In 2008, 30% of it's sample had voted, going for Obama by 65%-34% over McCain.  In 2012, 33% had already voted, favoring Obama by a margin of 62%-35% over Romney.

We wish we had some data from 2008 from Rasmussen to compare to it's 2012 polls. However, even in 2012 alone, Rasmussen appears inconsistent.  On Oct. 25, it reported that 35% of it's sample had already voted, giving Obama the edge by 52%-46% over Romney--the smallest margin in any Ohio poll so far.  But three days later, Rasmussen reported another Ohio poll.  This time, 32% had already voted, but Obama's margin was 62%-36%--a big swing from three days earlier.  So, which Rasmussen poll to believe?

Obviously, both campaigns are in high gear in Ohio right now.  But time is running out, as many Buckeye voters have already cast their lot.  It's pretty clear that Romney's campaign will have to get it's voters out on election day to catch up.  That's still quite possible, but for now Obama retains an edge.

OHIO EARLY VOTING



Note:  As of today, we have 17 polls from Ohio with early voting data. We compared the average of those polls to the average of all similar polls from Ohio in 2008. While Obama, on average, has a big lead in the early voting in Ohio this time around (average of 59%-37%), his lead in 2008 was even bigger, at 60.5%-34% over McCain. 

Oct. 26-29: Survey USA--25% already voted
Obama 56%
Romney 40%

Oct. 29-30: Public Policy Polling--33% already voted
Obama 62%
Romney 35%Oct. 29-30--CBS/Quinnipiac--doesn't say what % of survey already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 34%

Oct. 28: Rasmussen--32% already voted
Obama 62%
Romney 36%
Note: Not sure how to square this result with the Rasmussen poll just three days earlier!!

Oct. 25: Rasmussen--35% already voted

Obama 52%

Romney 46%

Oct. 23-25--ARG--28% already voted

Obama 55%

Romney 44%

Oct. 23-25: Purple Strategies--26% already voted

Obama 58%

Romney 32%

Oct. 25: CNN--59% EXPECT to vote early, no breakdown beyond that.

Obama 59%

Romney 39%

Oct. 23: Rasmussen--31% already voted
Obama 53%
Romney 43%




Oct. 22-23: Time--20% already voted
Obama 60%
Romney 30%



 
Oct. 20-22: Survey USA--26% already voted
Obama 58%
Romney 39%





Oct. 21: Suffolk Univ.--20% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 41%

Oct. 21: CBS News--20% already voted
Obama 54%
Romney 39%

 
Oct. 18-20: Public Policy Polling--21% already voted
Obama 66%
Romney 34%

Oct. 16: Survey USA--18% already voted
Obama 57%
Romney 38%

Oct. 12-13. Public Policy Polling--19% already voted.
Obama 76%
Romney 24%

Oct. 5-8. Survey USA--11% of sample had already voted.
Obama 59%
Romney 39%

Storm surge potential for Hurricane Sandy likely to flood NYC subway system

In Landstrike, my fictional version of a major hurricane striking New York City, one of the more devastating effects of the storm was flooding of the NYC subway system due to storm surge up the Hudson River.

Fictional hurricane Nicole in Landstrike was predicated on a worst case scenario for New York--a strong hurricane striking just south of the city, thereby forcing the greatest storm surge up the Hudson River.

It now appears that Hurricane Sandy may bring that disastrous scenario to real life.  Here's what meteoroligist Jeff Masters had to say earlier today about the storm surge potential:

"This evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna."

We suspect that subway flooding is only part of the story, as there are many low lying areas of NYC and its surrounding communities along the Hudson River.  We don't think it will be quite the magnitude of Landstrike, which was a more powerful and concentrated storm than Sandy, but we do think the coming disaster will cost billions and have long-lingering effects.

Ohio Early Voting Favors Obama

Note:  For more up to date info on Ohio (with over a dozen polls) and other states, see our more comprehensive post, updated daily, Poll Results for Early Voters.

If you're wondering why Republicans have been so keen to shut down early voting in Ohio, just look at the data.  So far we've found two polls that include early voting in their data.  In both, Obama has a commanding lead among those who have already voted:

Survey USA did a poll on Oct. 5-8.  In its sample, 11% of respondents said they'd already voted.  Of those, 59% voted for Obama, 39% for Romney.

Public Policy Polling, which tends to lean Democratic, conducted a survey on Oct. 12-13.  In its sample, 19% said they'd already voted.  Of those, 76% were for Obama, 24% for Romney.

And most recently, Survey USA conducted a poll on Oct. 16, in which 18% of the sample had already voted, with a 57-38 split in favor of Obama.

This is no surprise.  At about this point in the 2008 election, Survey USA reported that 12% had voted, and that they had gone 57% for Obama and 40% for McCain.  Ultimately, Obama comfortably carried Ohio in 2008, wining 51%-47%.

In the 2008 election cycle, we collected data from more than 80 polls that included information on early voting, and posted it HERE. 

We will look at this year's polls from here on out and begin posting anything interesting.  Early voting is already on quite a pace in Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine according to early voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, (see here), so the results should be interesting.

There Ought To Be MORE Undecided Voters

To hear the election pundits, it's a surprise that there are still voters out there who, so close to the presidential election, remain undecided.  As in, what more will these voters learn in the next few days and why haven't they already made up their minds?

The real surprise, however, is that there aren't MORE undecided voters.  After all, both candidates are pretty disappointing, and neither has a particularly realistic vision of what can be done in the next four years.

Perhaps if we had more undecided voters, the quality of discourse in debates and campaign appearances would be greater.

To be sure, the Curmudgeon will be voting for Obama.  Not because we think he's done a great job in his four years in office, but because he is decidedly better than the alternative.  We probably would have been okay with the moderate Mitt Romney who served as governor of Massachusetts, but that Mitt disappeared in the bowels of the Republican primaries and is not likely to return, beholden as he is to the GOP right.  In any event, Mitt's prescription for restoring the economy is a true disaster--it really is more of what got us into the problem to begin with.  Obama is no Bill Clinton, but at least he'll stalemate a largely Republican Congress.

Let's take last night's debate as an example of why there should be more undecided voters.  Face it, neither candidate answered the questions.  Obama was asked what he would do about $4 a gallan gas, and proceeded to brag about increased domestic production of oil and gas, which is a result of the prior administration's policies.  But that has not reduced gas prices--and it won't. 

Our guess is that voters don't want to hear that government policies have little to do with the price of gas.  They also have short memories.  Gas was at $4 a gallon near the end of the Bush administration.  Then it plummeted to less than $2 a gallon at the beginning of the Obama administration because the economy tanked--not because of any policy of Obama or Bush.  It is now BACK to $4 a gallon because DEMAND has recovered (in line with the economic recovery that Romney says hasn't occurred).

Romney didn't have anything better to say.  He would increase domestic production, but there's not much more increase to be had, and in any event oil is a fungible global commodity, the price of which depends on global demand.

Another question went to Romney, concerning his tax plan.  Romney says he will lower tax rates, but offset that with elimination of deductions and credits.  That is certainly feasible, but Romney truly has never said which deductions and credits he would eliminate.  The questioner asked quite specifically about certain deductions--mortgage, charitable, childcare, education.  Of course, Romney completely dodged the question. 

Romney threw out there that perhaps one way to do it would be to allow a total deduction of a limited amount that could be spread among whatever deductions apply to you.  Huh??  When has he EVER said that was part of his plan before?  And if it is, let's have the DETAILS.  Our bet is that some taxpayers would be winners in that, and some losers, but you'd have no way of knowing under his "plan"--more like a vague sketch.

In any event, the fundamental premise of Romney's tax sketch is fatally flawed.  He says that by lowering rates, we will create jobs because small businesses will have more money to do so.  WHAT?  That is not economics.  Business owners don't create jobs because they have more money--that's absurd.  They create more jobs because demand for their products and services have increased to the point that they MUST add jobs.  No business owner wants to add employees just for the sake of it.  If anything, they want to eliminate employees and operate more efficiently.  The goal of business is to make money, not create jobs.

Now, if you want to create jobs with government policy, the best way to do so is to stimulate demand for goods and services.  With tax policy, that can be done by reducing taxes for the the largest number of taxpayers, putting more spending money in their pockets.  That was in large part the theory of the stimulus.  But since--as Romney has pointed out--47% of Americans pay no income taxes, reducing income taxes won't help about half the people to demand anything else.  Further, since income tax payments are concentrated in the wealthiest Americans, reducing income taxes puts money disproportionately into the pockets of the wealthy, who already have more than enough discretionary income to buy whatever they want.  In other words, it does not lead to economic stimulus.

In short, Romney's tax sketch is not likely to create many jobs.  On the other hand, Obama doesn't have room, given the current deficit situation, to do much either.  And neither candidate spoke about the real elephant in the room:  the fiscal cliff.

We could go on and on--both candidates dodged gun control, Romney lied about his positions on health care and Obama evaded on Libya.  The fact of the matter is that the President can only do so much in our deliberately divided government, with all its "checks and balances."  Congress is gridlocked, and will remain so.  The President can be a cheerleader, but that's about it, other than on foreign policy.  That, more than anything else, probably explains why this election seems more likely to be decided on style and emotional issues (such as contraception coverage) than substance.

As for you remaining undecided voters--good for you, you may be the only sane people in our electorate!

Inside The Virginia Derecho

By now, many of you have heard the term "derecho" used to describe the intense meteorological event that wreaked havoc across much of Virginia and the metro DC area Late Friday night.

A derecho is a long-lived, fast moving line of intense thunderstorms with straight line winds in excess of 60 mph. The line is often bowed. It is a warm weather phenomenon--the storms get their intensity and propulsion when the colder air associated with the storms clashes with warmer air in front of the line.

Friday's derecho started near Chicago in the early afternoon and raced southeastward at about 60 mph, fueled by an intense mass of steamy hot air that set records throughout the mid-Atlantic that day.

To its credit, the intrepid weather bloggers at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang issued an alert late Friday afternoon (about 4:00 pm) that there was a 50 percent chance of "storms capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail" coming through between 10 pm and 2 am, after already pummeling parts of the midwest. I doubt if too many people took notice, as they were mostly just trying to survive the hottest June day ever recorded in DC.

As the night progressed, the wife and I were watching Wimbledon highlights on television, while I surfed the weather radar. The derecho was clearly headed our way, and looked powerful on the weather maps. The wife was a bit dubious about my explanation of a derecho and what this might cause.

Right around 11:00, with Roger Federer coming back in his Wimbledon match, the lights began to flicker and dim. The derecho was clearly evident just a few minutes away on radar. We stepped outside and it was deadly still, muggy and hot. But we could see some pretty intense lightning flashes to the west.

Just minutes later, out of nowhere, an intense wind gust caused our front door to pop open. Then all hell broke loose in an instant. It was if we had been in the calm of the eye of a hurricane one moment, then experienced the back side of the hurricane coming through the next. The wind was howling, loose items were careening down the street, trees were swaying and tree branches snapping. Torrential rain (we got .60 of an inch in 20 minutes) was blowing in sheets sideways, punctuated by bits of hail. The lightning was strobing in non-stop white flashes with blinding blue flashes every few seconds as transformer after transformer blew.

Right at the outset, the power went out, then flickered back on. Then it went for good--everything around us, including the brightly lit commercial district a block from our home, was dark, but for the brilliant white and blue flashes illuminating them. Unfortunately, our automatic, natural gas fed generator failed to kick in.

The storm was at least as intense as anything we saw during the height of Hurricane Isabel a few years ago, but it only lasted about 20 minutes, if that. We watched the intense trail of lightning tail off to the east as an eerie dark quiet settled over Arlington. After the remnant rain settled to a sprinkle, I checked on the generator--no luck, it was definitely kaput, the victim of maintenance neglect.

At least it had cooled off, so we had a fine night of sleep.

The next morning, reality set in. More than 60% of Arlington was without power. Our Verizon FIOS service was out. Cell phone coverage was spotty, wi-fi down. We couldn't get any cash--ATM's either lacked power or were temporarily disabled due to network problems. We found an open diner for an early breakfast, but they couldn't process credit cards. By the time we left the diner (after charging a couple phones) there was a huge line out front.

We decided to get a hotel room nearby. We were just in time, as a line was forming there too. Since their systems were down, it was cash only also. Fortunately, we had the cash!

So now it's Monday, a full three days later. Our power has partially returned at home, but only some circuits are working. Apparently we're on a dual circuit with the power company, only one of which is working. Unfortunately, that does not include any air conditioning, nor our washer, dryer, dishwasher, or basement freezer. And our internet and cable are still out as well, but we do have our hotel room!

We're luckier than many. Huge swaths of Arlington still lack power. I went to our local Target store today to get some items and it was operating on a generator, leaving the back parts of the store eerily dark. Many traffic lights are still out, and gasoline is scarce (glad the Prius had a nearly full tank-- should last awhile). Our house, especially the upper two floors, is sweltering. We figure it will be the end of the week before things get back to "normal".

Sit could have been worse. If the storm had hit late afternoon, it would have caught a lot of people outside, or trapped on roads in their vehicles. Thousands of spectators at the AT&T Open in Bethesda would have been at risk. In that respect, we were lucky, although the storm still managed to take more than a dozen lives.

So that's it, for now, inside the derecho zone.