Battle of the Engineering Consultants On Tysons Tunnel

Proponents of a an underground rail line through Tysons Corner have produced reports from their consulting engineers predicting that a tunnel will cost no more than an above-ground line and take no more time.

Governor Kaine, who so far opposes a tunnel (but who we believe is probably open-minded), has now released a report from his consulting engineers stating that a Tysons tunnel will cost more and take longer to build than an above-ground rail line. (See Washington Post story here.)

As anyone who lives inside the Beltway is well aware, you can always find a consultant to say whatever you want. You could even still find a couple people with scientific degrees who would dispute that smoking is harmful to health.

So, who to believe?

Let's start with the Tunnel's proponents. Clearly, they want a tunnel and they're going to hire consultants who'll come up with figures to support their plan. That's not to say they're dishonest. Rather, they suffer from a significant optimism bias. You can see that in the report of the Governor's consultants, who note that it's not practical to run a tunnel boring machine (like the one pictured here)24-hours a day without some maintenance delays.
They also note that the advanced tunnel boring technology advocated by the Tyson Tunnel proponents has not been used on tunnels as large as those for Metrorail. So, let's just say that the Tunnel proponents are presenting, at best, a very rosy view. Experience shows that with complex high tech construction projects, such rosy views almost never prevail.

That said--and before you tunnel proponents hit the comment button to skewer us--the Governor's report doesn't make a terrific case for the above-ground version. The Governor's engineers say it will cost roughly $160 million more (at a minimum) for the tunnel, and add six months to the project's construction timetable (they add more time for non-construction delays). IF a tunnel would cost only $160 million more on a $4 billion project, and IF it would delay things only another six months, then WE think the tunnel is a viable option.

The biggest variable is whether going for a tunnel would also jeopardize $900 million in federal funding, without which nothing will be built. We don't think folks should sit around and speculate about this--instead, there should be a sit-down with the right people. If the feds are open to a tunnel--and we think they may be--then the tunnel option should be back on the table. (Yes, we know, this is a reversal of our position a few weeks ago; we've been trying to read up since then.)

That said, we also don't buy the doom and gloom predictions about the consequences of having an above-ground rail line through Tysons. Arlington County Board member Chris Zimmerman, who also sits on Metro's board, is correct that this is "once-in-a-generation" issue, i.e., one with major consequences for Northern Virginia over the next 30-50 years.

All things being equal, a tunnel through Tysons would probably be better than an above-ground line. But the above-ground line is hardly a disaster. Tysons would do just fine with such a rail line--it would prosper and grow and incorporate the design into its future.

Our bottom line: the burden is on Tunnel proponents to establish that a Tunnel will not endanger federal funding, nor will it unduly delay the entire process. If they can get by those hurdles, then the Tunnel is the way to go.

Kaine, Obama, Davis and Tunnel Politics

Tim Kaine is going to endorse Barack Obama. Good for him. Given Virginia's rather lowly status in the presidential nominating process, Kaine could easily have afforded to just sit back and wait and see what happens, i.e., play it safe.

We just love the way this got reported in the Post today: "The sources [who leaked Kaine's decision ahead of a formal announcement] spoke on condition of anonymity because they do not want to preempt the formal announcement." If that were so, they would've simply kept their mouths shut.

[Ever since the Post (and its sister publication Newsweek) adopted a policy of stating a reason why a source wishes to stay anonymous, it has been filled with these silly--and obviously phony--rationalizations. Our favorite are the sources who spill the beans on national security matters and then say they didn't want to be quoted about sensitive national security matters. Hey, if they're that sensitive, you shouldn't be talking to reporters about them!]

We digress. Speaking of Tim Kaine, Representative Tom Davis has pulled the rug out from under Kaine on the issue of whether Metrorail's Orange Line extension through Tyson's Corner to Dulles Airport should be underground.

Davis, who wrote to Kaine last year, along with Rep. Frank Wolf, urging Kaine to support an above-ground rail line through Tysons lest the whole project be delayed, has now flip-flopped (despite saying "I don't think that's a flip-flop") and advocates the tunnel approach.

Normally, we kind of like Davis, a pretty moderate Republican, but on this one we have to wonder what's up. Is it, as the Post suggests today, that Davis's wife, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, a Republican State Senator from Fairfax County, is feeling the heat on the project? Could be.

Putting in a tunnel will raise the cost of the project significantly--by as much as a billion bucks. (Ignore the tunnel proponents who tell you otherwise--their numbers are way-cooked.) And it will take longer to complete.

We're not necessarily saying a tunnel is a bad idea--it is certainly true that putting the new line underneath Tyson's would give the region a chance at making itself over in an attractive way that may be greatly appreciated in 20 years.

However, it is important for members of Congress to be straight with Virginia officials--especially Kaine--about the significance of changing to a tunnel plan. We're sure that, all things being equal, Kaine would be delighted to support a tunnel. But we doubt that all things are equal on this one, and having Davis play politics only muddies an already murky picture.

Meanwhile, we wonder when someone's going to face the other big issue/problem with the Orange Line extension: the Rosslyn tunnel chokepoint. Extending the Orange Line to Dulles is a wonderful idea and will be great for everyone in the region. The only problem is that the vast expansion of ridership on the already crowded Orange Line will never work unless planners figure out a way--sooner or later--to add a Potomac River crossing to the Metro network. Right now, Orange and Blue Line trains go through the single tunnel between the Rosslyn (Virginia) and Foggy Bottom (D.C.) stations about as often as they can during rush hours. Switching Blue Line trains to the above water crossing parallel to the 14th Street Bridge--part of Metro's plan--will help for awhile, but in the long term there is going to be a need for another tunnel (or bridge) to service the number of Orange Line trains that will be needed to handle traffic all the way out to Dulles.

Davis probably expects he'll be retired before his constituents figure that one out.