Hillama versus McAbee?

Wow, we're falling down on the job here at Curmudgeon HQ. Last night we went to see a screening of one of AOL founder Ted Leonsis's "filmanthropy" projects, "Nanking," at Georgetown University. An excellent documentary so long as you don't mind nearly two hours of depressingly gruesome stories.

But that caused us to miss all kinds of other stories of our modern era. Hillary was right here in Arlington, speaking at Washington-Lee High School, where the young Curmudgeons will go if they manage to make it our of middle school. We missed it, but judging from the emails we're getting from both campaigns, Virginia is a real battleground between Clinton and Obama for the next few days.

Indeed, Virginia Democrats timed their Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond perfectly--who knew the race would still be in issue by this point--so that attendees this weekend will get the full treatment from both Hillary and Barack. Friends of ours are going--we're jealous.

Then, of course, Romney dropped out yesterday. A shrewd move on his part--shows the calculating businessman in him. He had no shot at this point, but he's still relatively young (certainly compared to McCain) and has built himself a good base in the Republican Party, so he cuts his losses and lives to fight another day.

We predict Huckabee will go one more round--through next Tuesday--then also graciously drop out (unless conservatives somehow rally around him--we doubt it--and he sweeps the Saturday and Tuesday contests).

We spent our post-movie evening last night debating the merits of Hillary versus Obama. Spiritedly debating, we might add. Too bad we broke down along predictable lines: the wives were for Hillary; the men-folk for Obama (although respectful of Hillary--we do like her).

With McCain as the GOP nominee, Democrats need the strongest ticket possible. We think that's Hillary and Obama, or Hillama. The remaining primaries are not going to decide this contest--it's too close and with proportional delegate allocation, neither candidate can get a real leg up. So pretty soon it's going to be time for party elders (not Bill) to get the candidates in a room and have a good, mature discussion about it.

Meantime, who's McCain going to pick as his veep? Having gotten the nomination on about a 35% plurality of the party, he has a lot of mollifying to do. It certainly won't be someone like Joe "been there, done that" Lieberman. It could be Fred Thompson, although we doubt he's interested--better to go back to television than be a figurehead veep.

Someone who would be interested is Mike "I don't have a job after this" Huckabee. That would certainly help with a significant segment of the evangelical community. Call it the McAbee ticket. But conservatives decided--pretty unfairly--to label Huckabee a "liberal" (that nastiest of all Republican sobriquets) early on, and they would see McAbee as far too centrist for their tastes.

So does McCain go with someone hard right? And if so, who? Kansas Senator Sam Brownback could fit that bill--bringing home evangelicals along with conservatives. There are others, of course. The problem is that many of the more vocal, bomb-throwing conservatives will never be mollified, no matter who McCain picks as his veep, so he may decide "hey, why bother."

We're not making any forecasts, at least not yet.

Heck, we're still trying to decide who to vote for on Tuesday. Probably Obama, despite Mrs. Curmudgeon's protestations. As Virginians, we'd love to see an Obama/Kaine ticket, really putting the state into play in November, but we're not going to bet any real money on that one.

And don't forget tomorrow's contests in Washington, Louisiana, Kansas (GOP only), Nebraska (Dem only) and the Virgin Islands (Dem).

Virginia--Color Me Purple

No Democrat has carried Virginia in a Presidential election since 1964. Not even Jimmy Carter, who carried much of the South in 1976, could manage to snag Virginia.

Could 2008 be the year that streak ends? Who knows, maybe Navy beating Notre Dame was an omen.

By the time the general election campaign rolls around in oh, say, March, Virginia may well become a "battleground" state. That would be nice--we'd get some attention for a change.

Indeed, if you go to the Wikipedia entry for "United States Presidential Election--2008" you'll already see Virginia listed as one of about 15 battleground states.

With 13 electoral votes up for grabs, Virginia is worth the fight. It's still a bit early--after all, we can't yet be sure who the major party nominees will be, nor whether there will be one or more credible third-party challengers. Still, let's take a look at the contest.

If you were betting real money, you'd probably want to bet on Virginia still going Republican in 2008, at least if the odds you were getting were even money. While Democrats have made tremendous strides in the past few years--electing Mark Warner and Tim Kaine governor; electing Jim Webb as U.S. Senator, and capturing additional legislative seats in each successive election--the Republican Party is hardly dead. Indeed, all the statewide races except Governor went to Republicans last time around; they still control the House of Delegates; and a majority of the state's congressional delegation is Republican.

Furthermore, moderate, home-grown Democrats like Warner, Kaine and former Republican (and former, former Democrat) Webb tend to do better with the state's broad swath of independent voters than do national Democrats.

On the other hand, the demographic trendlines in the state favor Democrats, the Republican party in the state is deeply split, and there's not a lot of enthusiasm among state Republicans for any of the potential GOP candidates.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that it's Hillary versus Rudy, with no credible independent candidate. And also that Mark Warner is running against Jim Gilmore for Sen. John Warner's open Senate seat. In that race, Northern Virginia is pretty energized (and might be further energized by tight congressional races for the seats held by Republicans Tom Davis and Frank Wolf). Meanwhile, the right wing of the Republican party is pretty dispirited--not enthused by Rudy and doubtful of Gilmore's prospects. We could see Hillary winning by a couple of points in that scenario.

Indeed, a very recent SurveyUSA poll of approximately 500 Virginia voters confirms our view: it had Hillary beating each of the leading Republican contenders EXCEPT John McCain. In the poll, she beat Giuliani by a statistically insignificant 47-46. And yet she lost to McCain by a margin of 52-42(!)

We're not predicting that Hillary--or any other Democrat--will carry Virginia next November. It's simply too early and far too fluid a situation. But the state's in play. Color us purple!

Webb For President?!

It's a measure of just how wide open the '08 presidential field is that after only a few weeks in his first elected office, as Virginia's junior Senator, Jim Webb's name is being bandied about as a condidate for President or Vice President.

Just look at some of his new admirers: Any More for Any More in the UK Guardian; Hillary Clinton's Mission Unaccomplished (Frank Rich in the NYT yesterday); State of the Union: Jim Webb for Vice President (on Huffington Post); and SOTU: Jim Webb for President.

Readers of the Curmudgeon know we like Webb a lot. But we're not ready to say he should run, much less earn the nomination, for President (although we're happy to see him included on the lists of approximately 1000 potential vice presidential running mates). It says a lot about the already crowded existing field, however, that bloggers and political pundits around the country, and even the world, are floating Webb's name out there after his masterfully succinct response to Bush's state of the union address.

We doubt Webb will be too tempted to throw his hat in the ring. We can't see him schlepping around the country kow-towing to Democratic Party activists, many of whom Webb has no use whatsoever for. Nor do we see him standing on a stage with somewhere between 10-15 other candidates in the inevitable "debates"--more like state fair cattle contests--that soon will get underway. If anything, the nominating process could only serve to sully Webb's growing reputation on the national scene as an independent minded progressive.

Still, you've got to hand it to the guy--he's certainly managed in short order to attain the highest profile of this year's large class of freshman Senators.