Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Perriello Race To Be Close (Or Maybe Not)

Update: While things looked good for awhile, the later results were not so good and it looks like Tom Perriello will go down in the GOP wave. Too bad--he was a good man!!

We've been closely watching the congressional race in Virginia's 5th District between incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello and GOP challenger Robert Hurt, and this one promises to be close. In 2008, Perriello had the narrowest win of any Democrat, and he was considered toast this time by many, but he's run a good campaign and still may pull it out thanks to independent candidate Jeff Clark, who is getting just over 2% of the vote.

We compared those counties with complete returns so far tonight to those same counties two years ago. In four of them--Prince Edward, Buckingham, Halifax, and Martinsville City--Perriello had a higher percentage differential than in '08 (we have to factor out Clark to get to this), whereas in five--Campbell, Charlotte, Henry, Nelson and Bedford City--his percentage differential was worse.

The biggest county, Albemarle, is still mostly out.

We think this will go down to the wire again, with Perriello gradually closing the gap thru the night.

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