McCaffrey On Iraq and Afghanistan

Retired Army General Barry McCaffrey, who served as President Bill Clinton's "drug czar," has been teaching at the U.S. Military Academy in recent years. McCaffrey recently visited both Iraq and Afghanistan, interviewing scores of key military officers and important civilian operatives in each theater. After each trip, he produced a concise "after-action" report, summarizing his findings.

These should be required reading for anyone with an active interest in the "War on Terror." (They are relatively short, at seven pages apiece.)

The Iraq report can be found here. The Afghanistan report can be found here. (Hat tip to reader Dave A. for sending us these reports.)

McCaffrey is pretty pessimistic about Iraq, but much more optimistic about Afghanistan.

First, Iraq. Today, bombers killed more than 150 and injured scores more in a series of apparently coordinated suicide attacks around Baghdad. The worst was a massive bomb that killed at least 119 in the Sadriya Market of central Baghdad.

Meanwhile, columnist David Ignatius warns of serious trouble brewing in Kurdistan, heretofore one of the most stable regions of Iraq.

So what did McCaffrey have to say after his weeklong visit in March? First, he paints a dire picture on the ground--"the facts":

"Iraq is ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighters (500+) --- and a couple of thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians. Thousands of attacks target US Military Forces (2900 IED’s) a month---primarily stand off attacks with IED’s, rockets, mortars, snipers, and mines from both Shia (EFP attacks are a primary casualty producer) ---and Sunni (85% of all attacks---80% of US deaths—16% of Iraqi population.)

Three million Iraqis are internally displaced or have fled the country to Syria and Jordan. The technical and educated elites are going into self-imposed exile---a huge brain drain that imperils the ability to govern. The Maliki government has little credibility among the Shia populations from which it emerged. It is despised by the Sunni as a Persian surrogate. It is believed untrustworthy and incompetent by the Kurds.

There is no function of government that operates effectively across the nation--- not health care, not justice, not education, not transportation, not labor and commerce, not electricity, not oil production. There is no province in the country in which the government has dominance. The government cannot spend its own money effectively. ($7.1 billion sits in New York banks.) No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi---without heavily armed protection.

The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings. There is no effective nation-wide court system. There are in general almost no acceptable Iraqi penal institutions. The population is terrorized by rampant criminal gangs involved in kidnapping, extortion, robbery, rape, massive stealing of public property ---such as electrical lines, oil production material, government transportation, etc. (Saddam released 80,000 criminal prisoners.)

The Iraqi Army is too small, very badly equipped (inadequate light armor, junk Soviet small arms, no artillery, no helicopters to speak of, currently no actual or planned ground attack aircraft of significance, no significant air transport assets (only three C-130’s), no national military logistics system, no national military medical system, etc. The Iraqi Army is also unduly dominated by the Shia, and in many battalions lacks discipline. There is no legal authority to punish Iraqi soldiers or police who desert their comrades. (The desertion/AWOL numbers frequently leave Iraqi Army battalions at 50% strength or less.)

In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh Merga, AQI, 1920’s Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations. Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and Shia) support armed attacks on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold 27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+) --- the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up--- not down--- as they incur these staggering battle losses."

Despite this assessment, McCaffrey concludes that "the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved" since the arrival of General Petraeus and additional troops. We think that's fair--things are better. But today's horrific bombings illustrate how little control we still have. Improvement hardly means we're where we want to be, or even close.

McCaffrey echoes other military leaders who have said Iraq is dangerously stretching our forces: "the US Armed Forces cannot sustain the current deployment rate."

Nor does McCaffrey believe we can achieve a military "victory": "there will be no imposed military solution with the current non-sustainable US force levels."

Instead, our only chance is to persuade "the top 100 Shia and Sunni leaders to walk back form the edge of all-out civil war" while also creating "a regional dialog led by the Iraqis with US active participation"--i.e., talks with Syria and Iran, among others.

McCaffrey acknowledges that time is very short, and cautions that "this whole Iraq operation is on the edge of unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with our forces caught in the middle."

At bottom, McCaffrey is saying we need to work out a political resolution in Iraq, and fast, or the surge will be a bust. We don't see enough signs that the Bush administration is working in that direction, especially diplomatically, where our efforts have been tepid at best. Unfortunately, it appears that a reduced force of US troops ultimately will have to draw back to secure bases in the region while a quite awful civil war plays out. We won't be entirely out of Iraq, or the region, for years, no matter who replaces our incompetent President.

Now, what about Afghanistan? (Sorry for the length of this post). As we've said all along, the war in Afghanistan has been slighted from the beginning by the idiotic decision to go to war in Iraq. As McCaffrey succinctly puts it: "The War in Afghanistan has been sharefully under-resourced by DOD throughout the entire intervention in terms of inter-agency involvement, US combat forces, political will, and nation-building resources."

However, "the situation is now turning rapidly for the better" [read between the lines: Rumsfeld is gone.]

"We can, without question, achieve our US national objective of a functioning law-based state -- with a performing, non-drug economy--- which rejects sanctuary for terrorism. This is the cross-over year. The execution of our plan in the coming 24 months will decide the outcome in the country. 90% of the Afghan people (to include the Pashtuns) reject the extremist ideology of the Taliban. They strongly abhor the continuing violence. They are working frantically throughout the country to re-build. They admire and trust their new Army. They are incredibly eager to absorb new lessons, new opportunities. They trust, admire, and protect their Embedded US Trainers. They will support security and progress while remaining a deeply Islamic state. In addition, the Pakistanis are strongly supportive of our goal of a strong, stabilized state. "

McCaffrey goes on to analyze the situation in a number of respects, finding that we have good promise in Afghanistan IF we follow-through on reconstruction aid, police training, resources for the Afghan army (for which he has great praise) and continued NATO support.

McCaffrey also visited Pakistan and concludes that the Pakistanis, "in a very difficult political and military situation" are not actively supporting the Taliban.

His conclusion is encouraging:

"The Afghan economy is booming at 12% growth rate a year. $14 billion has been spent on aid since 2001. Six TV channels and a hundred free/uncensored publications are available to the people. Literacy is increasing rapidly. The ring road is now 2/3 complete. The 40,000 soldiers of the ANA are growing rapidly in numbers and capability. There are 45,000 NATO and US troops in-country. There is a functioning democracy with an elected Parliament ---and a serious, dedicated Afghan President in office.

Afghanistan can be a strategic victory in the struggle against terrorism. We are now on the right path."

We believe the American people continue to support the battle in Afghanistan, even as they despair over the situation in Iraq. Let's hope we can follow through on our commitments in Afghanistan and prevent it from becoming another quagmire.