As the Democratic field for the '08 presidential race continues to grow, the race is starting to become a bit clearer.
After an initial surge of support, Obama appears to be settling into a more distant second place behind Hillary, who is unlikely to go much over 40 percent in national polls. Meanwhile, Edwards has cemented himself in third place, not far behind Obama, and unannounced candidate Gore looms in fourth. (For a chart with five recent national polls, click here.)
The big question in our mind who will emerge in fifth place, which is really fourth if, as we expect, Gore sticks to his guns and does something far more useful than running for President? (Granted, the longer Gore doesn't run the better he'll look to many party activists, especially as the rest of the field muddies itself while Gore collects a Nobel Peace Prize.)
For the alternative fourth place emerger, we'd put our money on New Mexico Governor (and former U.N. Ambassador, and former Sec. of Energy) Bill Richardson, a hispanic who'd have more appeal if he had a hispanic sounding name.
We think fourth place (without Gore) could turn out to be a great strategic position. Anyone polling lower than fourth will have difficulty raising money and surviving beyond the first three weeks of primaries and caucuses. Indeed, we think a few who have entered the race so early will also drop out by late Fall for lack of interest in their campaigns.
Fourth place, however, is good enough to raise money and hopes, and has the potential to show momentum coming out of the early primaries/caucuses, and thus emerge as the Hillary alternative if Obama and Edwards get stuck.
We like Richardson's chances as a dark horse better than the rest of the dark horse field. First, he's not a sitting Senator, so he won't bear the burden of a do-nothing Senate that won't accomplish a darn thing all year since everyone is running for President. Second, he's a governor, and governors do well in these contests--and with the only competition being from Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, we'd give the nod to Richardson. Third, IF Richardson can tap into hispanic voters AND get them to vote in primaries--two big IF's--he could do well in early primaries in big states if California and Florida move their's up.
What Richardson needs to do now is see if he can break out of the 2% pack (the gaggle of candidates polling 1-2% in national polls). If he can get up to just 4-5% it will help him raise money and maintain credibility as a candidate. So how does Richardson break out of the pack? It won't be easy. What he needs are some poll numbers from individual states putting him in third or fourth place, preferably with some low double digits. Nevada is one opportunity, but California is another and would be huge. Richardson has little chance of doing much in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, so he'll have to concentrate on the west, even as everyone else ignores it. (Query--will the media ignore the west, too?)
Now back to Obama and Edwards. While both are widely liked and admired, we're starting to wonder if either will be able to break out against Hillary and her machine. Edwards is tacking far to the left, and will do well in Iowa and South Carolina. But beyond that will he really have broad appeal? Obama will remain popular, but can he beat Hillary anywhere early on? It's hard to see where his strong base will be (unless it's California). If all Obama manages in the early contests is a distant second--or even third to Edwards--he will quickly fade.
That leaves the door open to a surge of support for Fourth Place in the mid-primaries.
Of course all this would be much more interesting if it was October or November of this year, instead of February. A lot could happen between now and then. A lot will, and most it will be largely irrelevant. We kind of wish the whole campaign could be placed in suspended animation for at least the next six months, but since that's not going to happen, what the heck, we'll speculate with the best of them.
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