Truth In Hurricane Forecasting

What would May be without the government's annual hurricane forecast?

True to form, most mainstream newspapers carried a story something like this (from the Washington Post) in today's editions:

"NOAA Predicts As Many As 6 Major Hurricanes This Year"

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted yesterday an 'above-normal hurricane season' this year, with as many as 16 named storms and the prospect that four to six of them could become major hurricanes. . ."

Neither the Post nor any other story I saw bothered to tell readers how well NOAA's last forecast--in May 2005--fared compared to the actual numbers for 2005's record hurricane season.

Here's how the story could have been reported to give readers better perspective:

NOAA Tries To Beat Abysmal 2005 Hurricane Forecast

After coming nowhere near predicting last year's record hurricane season, the experts at NOAA are at it again.

About this time last year, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted a slightly above average year, to include '12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.'

Boy were they wrong. As everyone now knows--no thanks to NOAA's prediction--last year broke just about every record in the hurricane book, with 28 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes--more than double the low end of NOAA's prediction.

So, what are those same "experts" forecasting for this season? Pretty much the same thing they said last year: 13-16 tropical storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes.

According to one private hurricane expert, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of hurricane forecasting, NOAA's forecast means things could be even worse this year than last. "My advice," said this expert, "is sell your beach house if you can, check your flood insurance, stockpile plywood, short your insurance stocks, buy a hybrid car and plan to vacation in California."

A NOAA spokeswoman, who asked not to be identified because she planned to leave the agency shortly, conceded that NOAA's forecasts rarely prove accurate. "Yes, it's true," said the spokeswoman, "we almost never get it right. But usually no one calls us on it. In any event, we were correct last year because we did say it would be an 'above average' year."

Asked to comment on NOAA's forecast for 2006, a FEMA representative, who also asked not to be identified because he didn't want anyone to know he worked for FEMA, said "that's the first we ever heard that NOAA issues hurricane forecasts. We'll have to look into that."

White House spokesman Tony Snow, who also asked not to be identified, said that the President has indicated that NOAA is doing "a heckuva job", and that this forecast "only highlights the need for Congress to pass the President's immigration bill."