What I Learned From 50 Shades of Grey

Ok, so after seeing that practically every woman in the U.S. was reading Fifty Shades of Grey and its offspring over the past few months, I decided to see what all the fuss was about.

It was very instructive.  I learned that:

• Women are as shallow as men
• Women's literary standards are no higher than men's
• Women, apparently, will totally degrade themselves sexually and emotionally IF a man is utterly handsome, extraordinarily rich and uses expensive body wash

I also learned that IF--and apparently only IF--a man is utterly handsome, extraordinarily rich and uses expensive body wash, then a woman will:

1.  Have an orgasm during intercourse with him EVERY TIME, right before he climaxes.

2.  Doesn't need any meaningful foreplay.

3.  Doesn't require or desire any kind of oral foreplay.

4.  Will have sex with him at any time of the day or night.

5.  Will have sex with him during her period.

6.  Doesn't mind being controlled and dominated, or spanked and flogged.

Also, said man will automatically be well endowed.  And, he can "do it" at any time of day or night, up to at least six times in one day.  (Wait'll you get older, buddy!)

Furthermore, said man's brother and sister will also be hot; the woman's friend will be hot.  In fact, everyone will be hot.

Finally, the other guy who is the same age as the woman, who cares for her, does nice things for her, and apparently is at least also attractive, will lose out every time.

I won't be reading the rest of the trilogy, thank goodness, as my writing skills would surely deteriorate.  Back to spy thrillers and weather disasters for me!

CRITICAL: Tracing The Deficit--It's Bush's Fault

For anyone remotely interested in national politics, the Washington Post buried an incredibly important economic analysis deep inside its "A" section yesterday.

Entitled, "Doing The Math On Obama's Deficits," the article, by Ezra Klein, analyzes the federal government's recent budget deficits to determine what proportion came from policies of George W. Bush, and what from Obama.  [There's also a follow-up today, here.]

What we find is that since W Bush became President in 2001, his policies have added $5.1 trillion to the national debt, while Obama's policies have added $983 billion.  And that's generous, because the analysis tagged Obama for $620 billion for the two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts.

All told, the Bush tax cuts have added about $2.5 trillion to the national debt since being enacted.

Let's not forget that when Bush took office, he inherited a budget surplus of more than $200 million per year.

So when the Republicans label Obama as fiscally reckless, let's look at the facts.  Can our nation afford another period of Republican rule?  Borrow and spend is not good policy.

Bondi Compounds Her Tax Problem

Melissa Bondi is now facing scrutiny from the "mainstream" press about her tax problem, or should we say problems.  Her response is not encouraging.

The worst thing a candidate for public office can do when faced with a question about their personal behavior is to lie about it.  Yet, that appears to be the path Bondi has chosen, and it will undoubtedly exacerbate the problems for her campaign.

Here's the two tax problems Bondi has:
1. A nearly $20,000 IRS lien for failure to pay taxes on income earned a few years ago; and
2. The apparent failure to pay personal property taxes on a car she garaged in Arlington for a couple of years.

As an aside, commenters on various blogs and news sites have raised other questions, but they seem beside the point.  She was late on some car tax payments a few years ago--ok, but she paid them, and a lot of people are late at some point in paying bills.  Another candidate, Kim Klingler, had the same problem, but really it shouldn't be disqualifying.  Also, some commenters have complained that Bondi is now not an Arlington taxpayer at all, suggesting that should disqualify her for office.  We don't see that as very pertinent--an Arlington resident who rents her abode and has no car can still be an excellent County Board member. 

However, not paying taxes, and then evading the truth about it, is serious. 

As for the IRS lien, Bondi's story is that until the tax judgment appeared on the Arlington Yupette blog a few days ago, she didn't know about it.  That is pretty hard to believe.  The IRS is far from perfect, but they don't file a tax lien without first making mulitple efforts to notify you of the tax delinquency and offering you an opportunity to negotiate the delinquency, all the while threatening the dire consequences that will befall you if you fail to act.  Also, when you get hit with a tax lien--which is public--all kinds of lawyers and other types come out of the woodwork offering to "help" you with the IRS.  Since the lien judgment has Bondi's correct address, it's hard to see how she somehow missed all that correspondence--some of which, by law, is required to be sent by certified mail.

Most telling is that in today's Washington Post article on the issue, Bondi "would not say" whether she received notices or warning letters. So, in other words, maybe she didn't know about the lien (still hard to believe), but she certainly knew about the delinquency.  It would be one thing if she was in correspondence with the IRS disputing the delinquency and the IRS upped the ante by filing a lien--they will do that; but that doesn't appear to be her story.

The car tax issue is also problemmatic.  Apparently, sometime in 2006 Bondi gave up her own car, but used a car that belonged to her father, who lives out of state.  The fact that a car is registered out of state, however, does not exempt it from personal property tax.  If the car is garaged in Arlington, it is subject to the tax. Bondi hasn't yet said anything to clear up this issue.  While the amount of money is probably quite small, we do think it says something about someone who wants to serve on Arlington's Board.  Paired with the other tax issue, it says volumes.

Now, people make mistakes, and if we only elected perfect people to public office, we wouldn't have any public officers.  We're more troubled at this point, however, with how Bondi is handling her mistakes. 

With four other committed Democrats running for the Board nomination, we think Arlington Democrats have better choices.

[The Curmudgeon is supporting Terron Sims.  But we'd change horses in a nanosecond if he had Bondi's type of problems.]

Bondi's Tax Problem

According to a posting on Arlington Yupette, County Board candidate Melissa Bondi has a tax problem with the IRS, which resulted in a judgment of nearly $20,000 against her back in March. (And public records confirm the judgment:  http://landrec.arlingtonva.us/public/ViewDoc.aspx?popView=false&hideForm=&docId=1621576&fileId=1479128&id=53&cat=j&origin=retrieval )

We'd like to know more about this inasmuch as Bondi has been reported as a frontrunner in the five-way race for the Democratic nomination to replace Barbara Favola on the Board.  The Democratic nominee will most likely win the seat; in turn, the Democratic nominee will be selected by a tiny percentage of the electorate at a "firehouse primary" type of caucus, probably by a plurality vote.  Since there is very little turnover on the County Board, it's important to know more here.

So far, the news outlets that cover Arlington politics--the Sun Gazette, Arlnow.com, to some extent the Washington Post--have been mum.  Some suggestions in comments on the Yupette page suggest it had to do with unreported income from some form of self employment.  It's pretty significant, however, that whatever the source, the IRS had to litigate and go to judgment--and we wonder if the judgment has been paid.

Our concern is about getting someone on the Board whose ethics are suspect.  Arlington has long been blessed by good government, without significant scandals, unlike some of our neighbors, such as D.C. and P.G. County.  Paying your taxes is a civic responsibility, and electing representatives who fail in this basic obligation is a clear path to trouble.

We'll be looking for more on this one in the days to come--much better that it come out before the caucuses, rather than after, lest Democrats find a way to blow the special election in March.

Soccer Ridiculousness--Part 2

In Soccer Ridculousness Part 1 we went over the absurd comments of college soccer coaches who object to any limits on current year-round training and competition for collegiate players.

Today, we cover the current push to prohibit elite players in the high school age group from competing with their schools.

In recent years, the powers that be in US youth soccer established an "academy" program for boys to supplement, compete with and generally confuse things with the existing Olympic Development Program, which was already confusing because it really has nothing to do with the Olympics.

Adding to the confusion, the girls have a different elite training program.

Putting aside, for the moment, the counterproductive effects of having multiple, overlapping and somewhat conflicting "elite" programs, let's get to what the boys Academy program is now trying to do.

Unlike ODP programs, which are run by state associations, the Academy program is run by individual soccer clubs who apply for the Academy franchise.  To get the Academy designation, they must meet certain standards and abide by certain rules that are supposed to enhance player development.

One of the rules now being proposed in the Academy is to PROHIBIT Academy players (all of whom are in high school age groups) from playing for their school teams.  This is a hugely misguided idea.

It is true that the quality of coaching at many high schools is inferior to that provided at the club level (not just the Academy clubs--almost any club).  High school seasons also conflict with club seasons; high school training conflicts with club training.  Many club teams "sit-out" the high school season to avoid conflict.

The Academy purists, however, believe that the high school season is detracting from the superior training of their young proteges, so they would simply get rid of the schools.

But that creates a huge dilemma for player who want the benefits of the Academy.  School soccer is VERY important to these kids.  In club games, the spectators are parents.  Many of those parents have been pushing their kids since kindergarten, yelling at them and countercoaching them from the sidelines.  Parents, being parents, are solely concerned about their kids, not the team.

In school, the spectators are fellow students.  They are cheering for the team--and its stars.  Being a star on the high school soccer team is a big deal for the ego of a student.  It gives the player an exalted place in the hierarchy of the school social strata.

Now, take the same kid, who everyone knows is a great soccer player, and have him (or her) suddenly NOT playing for the school team because his/her club team is so much more important.  Now that player not only loses the exposure to his/her school's cheering students, but actually becomes a traitor to the cause.  "Hey John, you're the best player at the school, how come you're not playing for the team?"

Potomac Soccer Wire recently had an excellent piece capturing just how agonizing this choice can be for players.  In this particular case, involving a girls team, the adults helped them work it out the right way--but that's getting increasingly rare.

The Academy and the various adults who rule youth soccer should not be creating this dilemma for players.  There is a better way to go:  improve high school coaching.  There is no reason that most schools cannot use club coaches for their school teams and adopt club training methods.  Some high schools already do this, and others should.  It won't be the Academy, but the Academy can easily work around the high school schedule and still give its precious charges the training and competition they need.

We'll add one more thing.  The folks behind the Academy think that they are bringing a European concept to US youth soccer.  In Europe, the professional soccer clubs run academy programs to identify and develop new talent.  But the US model is different in critical ways, and DOOMED TO FAILURE as a poor imitation of the European model. 

In Europe, the pro club academies don't charge for their programs.  As a result, they are drawing from the pool of ALL European players, and they are an attractive option for poor kids to pull themselves up.  The US academies, mostly at elite suburban clubs, do charge for their programs, and they attract a talented group of players from a limited subset of the population.  It's the exclusion of the rest of the population that makes all the difference!

The Future Car Is Literally Just Around The Corner

We've previously stated that it's only a matter of time before we humans stop the activity known as driving a car.  Cars will drive themselves--doing a better job than most humans--while humans use their time in their metal exoskeletons for other purposes.

Well, Volkswagen has announced that it will make it's "follow me" technology available on certain delivery vans in Europe shortly.  This technology allows a vehicle to literally follow its driver as he/she walks down the street, or to come pick up the driver from about a block away.

This is the next logical step from automated cruise control and cars that can park themselves.  Of course, it's only a few more steps to fully automated vehicles.  We can think of some immediate good uses for such, even as many drivers cringe at the thought.  One is for blind people--what a blessing an automated car would be for them!  Likewise for others with handicaps (permanent or temporary) that prevent them from driving.

Another group is very old people who can no longer safely drive.  Just think, Florida could be the capital of automated driving.  (Come to think of it, no one in Florida drives very well.)

There's also folks who have lost their driving privileges, either temporarily or permanently.  They're a good market for the new technology because they usually have lost their right to drive due to BAD DRIVING.

Looking further down the road, so to speak, we foresee a whole new car concept.  A driverless car can be configured completely differently from today's cars.  There is no need for a steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator and dashboard in such a car--those are for humans.  Likewise, there is no need for fixed seats that face forward.  Instead, you can have seats that swivel so a group can have a discussion while riding.  Or, seats like those in first class on international flights that can lie flat so you can go to sleep.  Leave for grandma's at midnight, take an Ambien and wake up a few hours later at your destination.

Indeed, there's no need for windows on such a car, although most people will want them.  But the windows could also be darkened, or better yet, turned into computer screens.  You could surf the web and play video games; of course, there will be those who watch porn as well.  Which leads to other things you could do while riding in an automated car with someone you love.

If all cars were automated, you could also make them a lot lighter and smaller.  Little women wouldn't insist on SUV's so they can see over traffic, and we wouldn't have to engineer massive cars of sheet metal to survive collisions with idiotic drivers of other massive piles of sheet metal.

And if all the cars are automated, they can go a lot faster, getting you to your destination more quickly.  That's because automated cars would not need, for example, the staggered start that humans take at a stop light--they could all start at the same time and pace.  You might not even need stoplights--just a system by which the vehicles yield to each other, as they could know exactly where all the cars around them are going.

You can also drink and ride--at least up to a point.

The way people interact with cars would be quite different as well.  No need to look all over for a parking spot--you'd get dropped off where you want to go, and then the car would go find it's own remote parking spot.  When you're ready to go, you just ask the latest version of the Siri app on your smart phone to have you picked up.  Like an instant cab without the smelly driver.

Furthermore, if you can summon a car to pick you up, anytime, why own a car?  Why not sign up for a car sharing service and get whatever type of vehicle you need at the time.  Driving into the office?  Order up a nifty electric one-seater.  Taking the family to the beach?  Get something more akin to an SUV, but without having to OWN one and drive it on the daily commute.

There will still be problems to work out--that smelly person who had the car before you; the people who leave their trash behind; the people who try to override whatever safety systems are in place, etc.  You can always count on a few people to do their best to ruin a good thing, but most of these obstacles will be overcome.

It'll be a good while before everything's automated--there will always be a few diehards crying out about "freedom" to drive themselves (at least until they try one of those porn trips).  But, the day is coming.  Just look down the street.

Soccer Ridiculousness--Part 1

In a belated effort to restore some semblance of balance to collegiate athletics, the NCAA is considering some significant changes to off-season training for a number of sports, including soccer.  Currently, collegiate athletes in soccer pretty much face year-round training and competition, including international tours in the off-season.

The NCAA's Resource Allocation Workgroup is proposing to ban off-season competition and international tours, and to reduce the number of games in the season by about 10 percent.  These are rational steps to reign in a sport--that like many others on college campuses--has gotten out of control.

Yet to hear the college soccer coaches yowl, you'd think the NCAA was proposing to shut soccer down.  These coaches--many of them foreigners--need to realize that college soccer is NOT PRO SOCCER, even though it may appear that way at times.

An article in last week's Potomac Soccer Wire illustrates the hysteria.  “The spring [off-season] games are critical,” noted University of Utah women’s soccer coach Rich Manning on his twitter feed. “Who would want to run, lift and train for 6 months a year with no games. And when you consider the NCAA doesn't allow players to play on outside teams, it's almost a death sentence to anyone getting better from ages 18-22."

A death sentence?  Coach, most of these players are going to have to go on to something other than soccer, or at least they should (although coaching apparently is always an option).  They ought to have some time to do something else in their lives.  They don't need to train all year either.  Yes, they need to maintain their conditioning, but that's not the same.

As for getting better (or playing all the time), if they want to go pro, go pro. 

Anyway, other sports also have only one season.  Football, basketball, baseball, to name a few.  Although it is true that some of these teams--notably basketball--do tour around the world in the off-season (remember Georgetown's brawl with a semi-pro team in China this past summer?), so we hope the rules will be enforced equitably.

Bad as the Utah coach's comments are, they pale in comparison to the utterly ridiculous statements of Rob Kehoe, Collegiate Programs Director at the National Soccer Coaches Association of America.  He's quoted in Potomac Soccer Wire thusly:  “If you have players that have eight months without competition opportunities, what happens to their discipline? In a campus situation, they’re going to be bored and involved with the scourge of the college campus, which is substance abuse and relationship abuse issues. The sport serves as a deterrent from being involved in things that are irresponsible, illegal activities that are very prevalent on college campuses."

Whoa!  We had no idea that colleges were such cesspools, with soccer literally being the only thing saving these poor young men and women from a life of destitution and ruin.

Soccer is a good sport, but it's only a sport.  There are plenty of good ways of allowing college soccer athletes to maintain (and even improve) their skills without subjecting them to year-round competition.  They need an occasional break from soccer, and time to focus on what the rest of their lives will bring.

Soccer COACHES, of course, have nothing better to do, but that's exactly why they shouldn't be the ones determining what limits should be placed on the sport within colleges.

VA GOP Takes First Step Toward Self Destruction

We knew they couldn't resist.

With its new dominance of all of Virginia's government, what's the first bill pre-filed by a GOP legislator?  Why, of course, a bill to define human life as starting at conception.

Even Mississipians rejected this really bad idea.

The question is whether Virginia's Republican legislators, needing to play to their base, will have the good sense to say "no" to this bill.  If not, they'll put Governor McDonnell in an awkward position, one that will dash any aspirations he has for higher office (Senate, GOP VP nominee)--if he vetoes such a bill, he loses the religious right; if he signs it, his moderate image (the basis for his success so far) is shattered.

Moreover, if this bill goes into law (and believe us, this one is just the tip of the iceberg--you can bet there are plenty of other religiously inspired bills to come from the same group), Republicans can kiss their majority goodbye in short order.

VA voters are concerned about the economy.  They didn't elect Republicans to institute a Taliban of state-controlled religion in the Commonwealth.

First World Problems Versus Third Word Problems

This morning my older son reminded me how trivial some of our utter frustrations can be. 

It wasn't a great morning.  The Curmudgeon is a single parent for most of this week, and it's the first hour and a half of each school day morning that is the real challenge.  The last two days were great, though, with everything running like clockwork.

Yesterday, however, unbeknownst to me, our housekeeper apparently unplugged my clock radio, then plugged it in and reset the time, but she conveniently had me "fall back" an hour just a little too soon for the switch to standard time this weekend.  As a result, my alarm would have gone off an hour late this morning, but for one of the kid's alarms waking me up only a half hour late (and quite confused as to why his alarm was going off at what seemed like 5:35 a.m.).

So this morning was a big rush, with dad grumbling quite a bit about our housekeeper's negligence.

Then older son lightens the mood on our trip to school by saying this a good example of "first world" problems and how they compare to third world problems.

First world problem:  alarm clock reset to wrong time;
Third world problem:  no electricity

First world problem:  this steak is medium, not medium rare
Third world problem:  we have no food

First world problem:  she said something mean about me on Facebook
Third world problem:  a militia group raped all the girls in our village

You get the picture.  So next time you're angry about something that has happened to you, play the first world/third world game.  You'll feel better.

Why VA Independents Should Vote Dem In State Senate Races

If you're one of Virginia's many independent voters, next Tuesday's elections--especially for state Senate races--should be of great interest to you. 

Virginia has a large group of mostly moderate independent voters.  They tend to be fiscally conservative and socially libertarian, i.e., they don't want the government telling them what to do in their bedrooms or with their guns.  Their primary interest is in getting good government services as efficiently as possible.  Not surprisingly, these sensible folks are disgusted with both major parties.

For those of you who fall into this large category of independent voters, Tuesday's election is important because if the Virginia state senate swings to a Republican majority, the Commonwealth will be--for the first time in many years--a single party state, with the GOP controlling both houses of the legislature as well as all the major constitutional offices (governor, lt. gov., AG, etc.)

That will, in turn, unleash social conservatives to push--and enact--a flurry of regulations on conduct, as well as to turn on the spigots for spending on conservative programs.  No, it turns out that Republicans are not against regulation, nor are they against welfare spending--it's just a matter of who/what they want to regulate (sexual mores) and who they want to reward (businesses, churches).

As long as Democrats continue to control the state senate, neither party can go too far off the rails with its agenda.  The current stalemate is not ideal--on some issues, particularly transportation funding, the legislature has gotten nowhere for years.  Virginians increasingly pay a higher and higher price each year for the lack of investment in transportation infrastructure.  But it's not like Gov. McDonnell's solution of sticking a tollbooth every few miles and pretending its not a tax is going to solve the problem.

In any event, independent voters have an important stake in how this election goes.  Republicans bill the election as a "referendum on Pres. Obama," but Obama's got nothing to do with it.  The real issue is whether Virginia is going to retain the balance that has served it so well over recent years.

Perfect for Halloween: Sorcerors and Apprentices

We commend to you The Sorcerers and Their Apprentices: How the Digital Magicians of the MIT Media Lab Are Creating the Innovative Technologies That Will Transform Our Lives, by Frank Moss.

Moss is the recent former director of the MIT Media Lab, and the book is an informal tour of the Lab's discovery process, which has brought us such things as digital books (where I read this one).

The MIT Media Lab is an agglomeration of scientists, engineers, artists and other experts into what Moss calls "anti-disciplinary" fields such as Kindergarten for Life, Opera of the Future and New Media Medicine. To say that the Lab is doing "cutting edge" work in science and technology would be an understatement--the folks in the lab are, in many areas, re-inventing the way things are done, from city driving to doctor's office visits.

It's a short read, less than 240 pages, and a fun one. Learning how the Lab's denizens in the City of the Future group, for example, have created a foldable car that can be stacked like luggage carts at an airport is fascinating. The technologists in the lab don't just dream up great--but perhaps impractical--ideas. They implement them by creating working prototypes and then giving the technology away to their many corporate sponsors.

While the gadgets and systems created at the Lab are mind-boggling, Moss's bigger point is the process of creation at the Lab--the antidisciplinary approach. The new "city car," for example, was created by a team that included only one automotive engineer, which gave them the freedom not only to think outside the box, but to discard the box altogether.

Some of the Lab's projects are almost magical in nature. The book highlights the roles of many of the quirky people involved in this process of creation. These are not boring people, and the book is a fun read that makes one optimistic for the futue.

The only negative is Moss's occasional myopic tendency to imply that no one else in the world is doing similar work. We doubt that's the case, but surely labs like MIT's are still pretty rare, and the approach used there could be more widely adopted in academic and corporate settings.

Who knows, maybe they'll even figure out a way to make Blogger's buttons work in Explorer 9!

GOP--The Party of Fiscal Irresponsibility?

Here's a biting op-ed from an oldline Republican doubting the current crop of GOP presidential candidates' commitment to fiscal responsibility:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/the-republican-idea-of-tax-reform/?emc=eta1

We'll just add that borrow and spend is no better--probably worse--than tax and spend.

Wish we could go back to the days of fiscally conservative, but socially liberal Bill Clinton and Al Gore!

(Hat tip to LS for the article).

How To Save The Postal Service

It's hard to believe that people are upset that the Postal Service might have to cut out Saturday mail delivery.

Really, is there anything that comes in the mail on Saturday that couldn't wait until Monday?

The fact of the matter is that NOTHING particularly time sensitive comes in the mail. Yes, we do need mail service, but why not limit it to two times a week--say Tuesday and Saturday? Would it really make a difference?

The mail is a little like human food digestion. A lot of stuff goes in, a tiny amount of with actual nutritional value is extracted, and the rest gets excreted as waste.

In our household, the Curmudgeon processes the mail. More than 90% of it gets immediately dumped into the recycling bin. The rest goes into one of two piles: stuff that needs to get filed (eventually--usually on a rainy day), and stuff that needs some kind of action (mostly, bills). The action items get addressed about once a week.

Oh, and there are the magazines, but even the so-called newsweeklies are no longer all that timely--any real news we've already gotten off the net from our smartphone. Being old-fashioned, we like having magazines around, but waiting until tuesday, or Saturday, to receive them would be no big deal.

So, to those who oppose eliminating Saturday delivery, we say fine--let's keep Saturday, and get rid of most of the rest of the days!

Memo to GOP Fatcats: Don't Block My Driveway!

This evening, one of our neighbors hosted a fundraiser for Caren Merrick, the Republican candidate for state senate in our local district.

Hey, we have no problem with that. But one of the GOP fatcats attending decided it was just too much trouble to find a legal parking space, so instead parked completely across our driveway. They're fortunate that Mrs. Curmudgeon was feeling charitable and only had them ticketed--the Curmudgeon would have had them towed (and jr. Curmudgeon wanted to put an obscene sign on their windshield).

Meanwhile, a small group of protesters gathered outside the fundraiser to urge another attendee--Congressman Frank Wolfe--to support the Jobs Bill. More than our usual level of excitement on North Edgewood St.!

Maybe we'll have a fundraiser for Merrick's opponent in November, Arlington Co. Board member Barbara Favola.

Irene Was A Good Warning For the Northeast

Although Hurricane Irene turned out a little weaker than many forecasts, it still caused at least $5-10 billion in damage, while serving notice to the mid-Atlantic and northeast about what a more powerful storm could do.

Some observations post-Irene.

1. Forecasting landfall for a hurricane approaching the Atlantic coast is quite difficult. As is usually the case for storms like Irene, the forecast track steadily slipped northward over a period of days, moving from the lower South Carolina coast to the middle of North Carolina. Had Irene's track been just 50 miles further east, it could have missed NC altogether (skirting the Outer Banks) and remained a stronger hurricane as it approached further north.

2. Likewise, forecasting hurricane intensity is difficult. Fortunately for NY and New England, Irene did strike NC first, taking out quite a bit of its energy. But even before it approached NC, Irene weakened a fair amount. In constrast, in 1989, Hurricane Hugo ramped up in intensity just hours before striking Charleston, SC. Better to err on the side of overpreparation, however.

3. There was more time to prepare for Irene than would be the case for some storms. Irene approached at a relatively leisurely pace for an Atlantic hurricane coming at the east coast (less than 15 miles per hour). The 1938 "Long Island Clipper" was going 60 miles per hour when it hit NY. In the future, there could easily be storms where the lead and warning time is half that of Irene.

4. A large storm like Irene is particularly dangerous. Irene was a good sized hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending a good 200 miles from its center. A storm that size striking the east coast is always going to cause a lot of damage because there are so many people and cities concentrated in the region. Irene sent moderate storm surges over hundreds of miles of coastline; blew down trees over a huge area; and dropped flooding rains on at least ten states.

5. A slightly more powerful version of Irene could cause catastrophic damage. If, as forecast, Irene had strengthened to a Category three storm before landfall, and if it had just missed NC before turning toward the Atlantic Coast, it could have dealt a devastating blow to NY, NJ and/or New England. As it was, as a large tropical storm Irene managed to flood parts of New York City and devastate several NJ beaches. A more powerful storm on the same track could easily have upped the damage ante to $50 billion, or even $100 billion.

6. NYC is ready to take hurricanes seriously--NYC officials treated the threat soberly, as did many--but of course not all--New Yorkers. As illustrated in the Curmudgeon's novelization of a major hurricane striking NYC (Landstrike), the consequences of a major hurricane making a direct hit on the city would be devastating. We just hope there's no backlash in attitudes because the storm ended up a little weaker than advertised.

Fortunately, geography and climate make the odds of a major hurricane striking NYC at any given time quite small. Irene illustrated that point. But, when the big one does hit--and one day it will--the consequences will be devastating.

REALLY IMPORTANT AND USEFUL INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANE IRENE FOR EAST COAST RESIDENTS

Anyone living on the east coast from North Carolina to Maine should read this excellent summary of the significant dangers from storm surge from Hurricane Irene:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1899


(We, of course, also like and greatly appreciate the plug for Landstrike at the bottom. Irene is behaving very much like fictional hurricane Nicole in Landstrike, albeit not quite as strong--but still dangerous!)

Will Irene Follow Us To NYC?

It figures. The Curmudgeon family is headed to New York City this weekend for a show and some touristing about, but it looks like Hurricane Irene may follow us up there, Landstrike style. Irene probably won't be "the big one," and it's course is still far from certain, but we guess it would be poetic justice for the storm to ruin our weekend. (Having just survived the great Virginia Quake of '11).

The forecast track for Irene is already illustrating one of the big problems with hurricane forecasting that we tried to highlight in Landstrike: given the curvature of the Atlantic coastline and the tendency of Atlantic hurricanes to curve to the north as they approach the coast, it is very difficult to accurately predict where they'll strike (or if they will miss entirely).

In the worst case, Irene will hug the coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod, causing billions of dollars of coastal damage (similar to Hurricane Floyd in 1999).

If you live anywhere on the east coast north of Georgia, you should keep a close eye on this one for the next few days!

Rick Perry's Porn Investment

With hat tip to Nathalie, we thought this was interesting in terms of a long line of GOP "family values" hypocrites:

Rick Perry's Hardcore History of Investment in Porn

We'd be willing to bet he's sampled the product as well.

Arlington Should Tell Motorcyclists To Take A Hike

[Note to readers: with this post we're back from a summer hiatus, hoping to resume posting regularly.]

Arlington County has announced that it will close portions of I-66 and Route 110 in the County this Friday afternoon between 2:30-4:00 pm so that Arlington police can accompany a large group of motorcycle riders coming into town to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

Sorry Arlington, but this is BAD POLICY. Anyone who's ever driven I-66 on a Friday afternoon knows that rush hour starts early and it goes in BOTH directions. Likewise, Rt. 110 is a major artery.

We have no problem with motorcyclists coming to town to commemorate the 9/11 attacks, although we highly suspect this is more like a big party than any kind of solemn event. (Promotional material for the event on Friday touts a BBQ in Crystal City on yet more closed streets, along with a gun raffle to raise money. A lot of Arlingtonians on Arlnow.com were more bent out of shape about the gun raffle, but we're not sure Arlington authorities can--or should--do much about that.)

But on a Friday afternoon?

There's a reason why marathons, walk-a-thons, bicycle events, etc, are on Sunday mornings: because the traffic disruption is minimized (it's still disruptive if you're trying to get somewhere at that time). Why cave in to these motorcyclists?

The alert from Arlington County said, in part, that it is for the protection and safety of the motorcyclists. Fine, but if they want to ride into town on a Friday afternoon, they should sit in traffic like everyone else (and NOT hot dog it around cars, driving on medians and in the middle of lanes).

Couldn't Arlington have told the cyclists that they'd be welcome to come in at say between 10:00 a.m. to noon, or after 7:00 pm? Or on the weekend? This is a bad precedent.

If the President (current or most recent) were to motorcade through at a similar time, disrupting traffic, you can believe there'd be complainers. (Indeed, a few years ago, Bush wisely opted not to motorcade to a fundraiser in NoVa during rush hour, realizing how counterproductive it would be.)

Powerful Video On Climate Change

Send this to all your Red State friends!