Maybe Obama Really Doesn't Get It

Today's depressing reports include that Pres. Obama is considering extending the Bush tax cuts for EVERYONE, including the top 1-2 percent of earners, for another couple of years.

WTF! Come on, Obama, get a backbone. One reason we're losing out to the tea-baggers is we're not putting up a fight. If you go down that road, you may well have an intra-party challenge in 2012.

Why not show that you, at least, are SERIOUS about deficit reduction. The stock market is now up nearly 100% since its bottom in March 2009. The rich are doing fine. The Bush cuts were supposed to be "temporary."

Don't be another Republican.

10 Dumbest

Back in the early 1970's, New Times magazine published a list of the "10 dumbest congressmen". With the election of so many new tea party Republicans to Congress, it may be time for an update. What about the "10 Dumbest Freshman Representatives"?

Nominations are open!

Did you know that the words "race car" spelled backwards still spells "race car"?

"Eat" is the only word that, if you take the 1st letter and move it to the last, spells its past tense, "ate"?

And, if you rearrange the letters in "so-called tea party Republicans" and add just a few more letters, it spells:

"Shut the f**k up you free-loading, progress-blocking, benefit-grabbing, resource-sucking, violent, hypocritical, douche bags, and deal with the fact that you nearly wrecked the country under Bush and that our President is black."

Hat tip to JB for this one.

Perriello Race To Be Close (Or Maybe Not)

Update: While things looked good for awhile, the later results were not so good and it looks like Tom Perriello will go down in the GOP wave. Too bad--he was a good man!!

We've been closely watching the congressional race in Virginia's 5th District between incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello and GOP challenger Robert Hurt, and this one promises to be close. In 2008, Perriello had the narrowest win of any Democrat, and he was considered toast this time by many, but he's run a good campaign and still may pull it out thanks to independent candidate Jeff Clark, who is getting just over 2% of the vote.

We compared those counties with complete returns so far tonight to those same counties two years ago. In four of them--Prince Edward, Buckingham, Halifax, and Martinsville City--Perriello had a higher percentage differential than in '08 (we have to factor out Clark to get to this), whereas in five--Campbell, Charlotte, Henry, Nelson and Bedford City--his percentage differential was worse.

The biggest county, Albemarle, is still mostly out.

We think this will go down to the wire again, with Perriello gradually closing the gap thru the night.

Our Predictions For Tuesday

Yes, readers, we've been awfully quiet of late as the election season has progressed to it's climax tomorrow. Why? Just too depressing.

A significant portion of the electorate seems to think we can have a federal government that provides the services they want, with lower taxes and a balanced budget. And they seem to believe that candidates who espouse a balanced budget without specifying how they'll do it are inherently credible, as long as they are "against Washington."

Do these same people also think they can get paid a high wage without actually doing any work, or that they can get unlimited health care without it costing anything?

Our voters also have a very short memory. Two years ago we were teetering on a true economic Depression. Reluctantly, Democrats--of all people--voted to shore up the economy by bailing out the same banks and Wall St. firms that caused the crisis. The worst of it was avoided, but now voters, unsatisfied that the economy is not roaring again, want to return to office the folks who caused the problem in the first place.

This is a little like suing the doctor who saved your wife from certain death with an emergency tracheotomy because now she has a scar on her neck.

Anyway, we went through this in 1992, and it turned out ok. After the Republicans returned to power then, we soon saw what incompetent fools they were, and things balanced out.

Enough whining Mr. Curmudgeon. Here's our fearless predictions for tomorrow:

Senate: Dems 50, GOP 48, Independent 2

House: Dems 204, GOP 231

In individual contests, we'll do the same ones as the Washington Post Crystal Ball contest:

Nevada Senate: Reid 44, Angle 47 (Nevada has a "none of these candidates" option)

Colorado Senate: Bennet 50, Buck 49

California Governor: Brown 52, Whitman 47

Maryland Governor: O'Malley 53, Ehrlich 47

Tie-breaker--% of vote for Christine O'Donnell in Delaware: 42%

Wild Card--Tom Perriello retains his seat in Virginia's 5th Congressional district

Cooch Commits More Fraud, Waste and Abuse

Hey Tea Partiers! Want to cut out fraud, waste and abuse in Virginia's government? Then ask Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to drop his politically motivated civil investigative demand against his own client, the University of Virginia, for documents related to research done by climate scientist Michael Mann.

U.Va. has already spent $400,000 SUCCESSFULLY fighting the AG's lawsuit, and only the Cooch knows how much his office has also spent on it. And now he's back for more!

Here's what's happened so far: using a law designed to catch people who commit fraud against the state, the Cooch, within weeks of taking office, issued a subpoena to U.Va. for all records related to research funded by a series of grants Mann had while teaching there (he's now at Penn State). Cooch claimed that Mann defrauded the Commonwealth while performing research that underlies claims of man-made global warming.

A state court then THREW OUT the lawsuit. It ruled that the Cooch could only go after research projects funded by the state of Virginia, which was only one of the five grants that the subpoena was aimed at. As to that one state grant, it said that Cooch's subpoena failed to allege just how it was that Mann had committed fraud.

Now, having wasted a lot of taxpayer money with his legal malpractice the first time around (it would not have taken a legal genius to realize that the state of Virginia has no basis to sue over federal grant funds), the Cooch is back with a new subpoena aimed at the one state grant. The only problem? The state grant has nothing to do with climate research!!

Furthermore, the supposedly beefed up allegations of fraud in the new subpoena shouldn't pass muster either. The Cooch claims that Mann's papers (albeit not the papers that were the subject of his state grant) "demonstrate a complete lack of rigor regarding the statistical analysis of the alleged data, meaning that the result reported lacked statistical significance without a specific statement to that effect."

Huh? That's fraud? If "lack of rigor" regarding statistical analyses is now a crime, there are thousands of scientists--including quite a few on Cooch's side of the climate "debate"--who are headed to jail. All the Cooch is really saying is that he disagrees with Mann's interpretation of his data. This is a valid area for scientific debate, but not a valid use of state funds for LITIGATION.

On top of all this, the Cooch is also appealing parts of the initial court ruling against him. That's great for U.Va's lawyers, but not for us taxpayers.

Surely the Cooch can find some legitimate targets for claims of fraud against the Commonwealth. He might start by looking in a mirror.

Nathalie for Senate

For Nathalie Dupree's campaign website (nathaliedupreeforussenate.com), click HERE.

Nathalie Dupree For Senate

The Curmudgeon's stepmom, Nathalie Dupree, is announcing a write-in bid for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina today.

Nathalie will be challenging incumbent Senator Jim Demint, the overwhelming favorite after Democrats nominated Alvin Greene, an unemployed novice who has been charged with showing pornographic pictures to a college student.

Nathalie, who is a renowned chef, with many cookbooks and television cooking shows to her credit, also happens to be quite politically active and astute. We're pretty sure Nathalie doesn't expect to be moving to Washington after the November election (although we've told her she's welcome in the Curmudgeon guest quarters), but she did feel that Greene's flagging campaign was failing to raise certain issues about Demint that ought to be aired.

Demint, for his part, is so confident of victory that he's barnstorming around the country trying to help various highly unqualified Tea Party candidates elected to they can wreck our government.

We'll try to get a link for Nathalie's campaign website in here soon--not sure it's gone live yet.

Arlington Goes Crosswalk Happy

Maybe Remy (of "Arlington Rap" fame) should do a rap on Arlington's penchant for putting crosswalks every 10 feet.

Really, the County has gone crazy with crosswalks. We're all in favor of well-marked pedestrian crossings, especially at intersections controlled by traffic lights or stop signs. In those cases, the walks discourage drivers from creeping into the pedestrian crossing, while the traffic signals let everyone know when they can walk--or not.

But Arlington has added quite a few crosswalks in fairly busy roads where these is no intersection. The County is also fond of signs reminding drivers that "state law" requires yielding the right of way to a pedestrian in a marked crosswalk.

We sometimes wonder about that state law. If Arlington marks a crosswalk on I-395, does everyone have to stop? Could be a less expensive way to derail HOT lanes than the County's silly lawsuit.

In any event, some of the crosswalks the County has laid out are downright dangerous, and could get a pedestrian killed. The worst is one on Wilson Blvd., at the Gold's Gym in Ballston. This crosswalk is not at an intersection; it's across a four lane road; it's at a curve in the road; and it's in a part of the road that demands extreme concentration from drivers on the other cars--there are parking lanes and a lot of people turning here with no turn lane. Some places were not meant for pedestrians to cross, and this is one of them.

Then there's the silly crosswalks. At the Powhatan skateboard park on upper Wilson Blvd., there are three crosswalks controlled by traffic signals, including one traffic signal solely for pedestrians. Yet, that didn't stop the County from adding a fourth crosswalk between these, with no traffic signal. As if skateboarders are going to use a crosswalk!!

Another problem is road markings that look like crosswalks, but aren't. Arlington loves "traffic calming" speed humps, but paints them with white markings to alert drivers. Some of those markings look a little like crosswalks, but they aren't. We have seen pedestrians standing at these, scratching their heads, wondering if they should blandly walk out into traffic with that "state law" protecting them like some kind of fake force field.

Pedestrian safety is important, but giving pedestrians a false sense of security with badly placed crosswalks, or faux crosswalks, only increases the danger. Fortunately for pedestrians, Arlington has engineered most of its roads so you can't really get over 25-30 mph, even if you wanted to.

Tropical Storm Nicole Takes Dead Aim At Curmudgeon

Does Mother Nature have a sense of humor--or irony--or maybe just revenge? A year ago, the Curmudgeon released Landstrike, his book in which fictional Hurricane Nicole slams into New York City as a major, category four, storm, wreaking havoc and spreading devastation far and wide.

Now we have Tropical Storm Nicole about to cross Florida. It has little chance of becoming a hurricane, or devastating New York, but it does appear to have the Curmudgeon in it's cross-hairs. Nicole is forecast to race directly across D.C. tomorrow, bringing torrential rain and the prospect of postponing the first round of the golf tournament the Curmudgeon is playing in this weekend.

We know that you all share our pain!

Do We Need Refrigerators That Tell Us When We're Out of Milk?

Yesterday's Post, reporting on an impending FCC decision to free up some unused TV broadcast spectrum for new wireless applications, speculated that as a result we could see "internet connected refrigerators that monitor when it's time to get more milk and eggs."

Huh? Is this something people are dying to get? The Curmudgeon gets enough junk emails without having his refrigerator nag him for more milk.

Or worse yet, asking to be cleaned; or wondering if anyone's really going to eat those Noodles & Co. leftovers that have been sitting in the back for a week; or questioning the need for five different kinds of mustard; or suggesting something healthier than Stouffer's frozen lasagna.

If this is all we're going to get from a "new generation" of wireless, why bother?

Let us know when you come out with a refrigerator that will go to the store and get the milk. Then we'll take interest!

Random Thoughts on Rosh Hoshanah

Sitting in temple for two and a half hours of Rosh Hoshanah services gives one's mind plenty of time to wander, especially when the cantor's belting out several minutes of some incomprehensible Hebrew tune.

So here's some of those thoughts:

--Why is the service so long? Hasn't anyone ever heard of editing? Wouldn't it be great if the college of rabbis, or whatever they're called, used some modern techniques to determine ideal human attention span and designed a service that people would enjoy?

--Why is so much of the service in Hebrew? The Jews who started these services spoke Hebrew, so it made sense to them. But as a reform Jew, who like most reform Jews learned how to read Hebrew for bar mitzvah purposes, but certainly never learned to understand it, why stick with the old language?

--Why is so much of the service meaningless. Most of the blessings are about the greatness of God, or some event that took place 5000 years ago. Why not craft blessings that would make modern Jews think about their role in the modern world? And why not incorporate more recent events? Yes, the exodus was great. But so was the 6-day war.

--One prayer repeated throughout the high holy days talks about how it is written on Rosh Hoshonah, then sealed on Yom Kippur, who shall die by various means--fire, water, sword, etc. Again, that made sense when the Hebrews wrote the prayer--that's what killed them then. Why not update it: who shall die by heart attack, who by stroke; who by diabetes and who by cancer; who by auto accident and who by gunshot.

--The weird thing about religions is that the people who start them don't glom on to the past to create them, but the people who perpetuate them feel a need to stick with the past after it no longer makes sense. Orthodox Jews wont' drive on the sabbath because that would be "work". The only reason for this is that before cars, people used horses. For a horse, it is work. Cars are inanimate. Anyway, religion ought to try to stay relevant.

--Is there really a point to having someone sing a long song in a language no one understands? This is when the mind really starts to wander. I like a little music in the service, but we could cut out a lot of the mind-wandering time.

--The story of Abraham and Isaac. What's up with that? What if the Bible told the story from Isaac's perspective? "Ok dad, first, you lied to me. You said god would provide a sacrifice when, in fact, you crazy coot, you were planning on sacrificing me!" We'd especially like to know what Isaac thought when Abraham tied him up and put in on the altar. Did Isaac go on any more trips with his dad after that?

--Why aren't there very many young people at the service? Oh yeah--see above.

P.S.--I remembered one more after posting this: why is Rosh Hoshonah called the "new year"? The Bible says that it is to occur on the 1st day of the seventh month--hardly the beginning of the year!

McDonnell's Liquor Privatization Plan

Guv McDonnell has finally unveiled his plan to privatize Virginia's liquor stores, a centerpiece of his campaign platform.

The plan illustrates the problem. On the one hand, there is no particularly good reason for Virginia to have socialized liquor. The state's ownership of all liquor stores is an artifact of post-prohibition era efforts to control hard liquor sales. Certainly, the private sector can handle liquor sales with appropriate regulation, while improving service to customers (there are too few liquor stores and their hours are not always convenient).

On the other hand, state ownership of ABC stores brings in more than $250 million a year in revenue. We can't just sell off the stores for a one-time short-term windfall while losing that revenue stream.

So, to keep the revenue while getting the one time benefit--estimated at about $500 million--from privatizing the stores, McDonnell has proposed a series of new taxes. He says they aren't taxes, but they are. That said, they are pretty reasonable taxes--they're basically designed so that liquor sales in Virginia bring in revenue at about the same rate as in other states.

On balance, we like the idea--get the money without losing the revenue stream. But we think that McDonnell's Republican colleagues in the legislature will kill the idea. Anything that reeks of "tax" is anathema to them, no matter how much sense it makes. After all, this isn't a bunch that's really interested in making government work better.

Democrats in the legislature may also make trouble, for political and other reasons. And if the GOP isn't going to support the Governor, why let them label Dems as "tax and spend" even if the plan does make sense.

So most likely another good idea will go down the drain, sacrificed to the gods of politics.

A couple other points on McDonnell's plan. He says he'll use most of the $500 million windfall from privatization to pay for transportation improvements. That's nice--the money is really needed. But it's a drop in the bucket--the Commonwealth needs billions of dollars for transportation, and it needs a dedicated funding source, not a one time benefit, to secure those improvements. Having motorists pay a modestly higher gas tax would do the trick. As a proportion of the price of gas, the tax is less than half what it once was. But those "no tax" Republicans would rather have you sit in traffic than work out a reasonable financing plan. If they ran businesses the same way, they'd be bankrupt.

Also, some Dems are saying that McDonnell's plan to sell about 1000 new liquor licenses may bring liquor close to schools and into low income neighborhoods. We don't think so--most of those licenses are intended to go to outlets that already sell beer and wine. Virginia has too few liquor stores to serve it's growing population now. While 1000 sounds like a lot, it's really not.

Will the plan succeed? Probably not--seems voters don't want "change" after all.

Could Earl Surprise The East Coast With The Landstrike Scenario?

In Landstrike (the Curmudgeon's hurricane novel), fictional hurricane Nicole forms out of a tropical wave as it passes the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, and eventually strikes New York City as a major hurricane, devastating a region with 25 million people in it.

Could Earl follow the Landstrike scenario? The answer is yes, but it probably will be a near miss instead.

Earl's path has been similar to that of fictional Nicole, but just a little further to the east. In Landstrike, Nicole's powerful eye just brushes by Cape Hatteras, N.C., then, carried by the jet stream, races up the coast and turns right up the Hudson River, delivering a catastrophic storm surge into New York City.

Earl, too, is expected to brush by N.C.'s outer banks, but curve away from New York before turning back to the west and slamming northern New England or Nova Scotia.

But forecasting the track of these storms is tricky. In Landstrike, officials at the National Hurricane Center furiosly debate whether to issue a hurricane warning to New York. One faction believes the storm will curve out to sea, as they usually do. The other believes the weather system that's supposed to push Nicole out to sea will arrive too late.

That very debate may be going on now at the NHC. Weather models forecast that a powerful low pressure system will arrive just in time to bounce Earl away from the coast, but not enough to keep it out of Maine or Nova Scotia. Timing is everything, however. If that low pressure system slows down just a little bit, New York--or maybe more likely, Boston--could get a direct hit.

In fact, one widely used computer model (NGFDL) has Earl striking right around Providence/Boston, while others have it moving a further to the east. Trying to make sense of these conflicting computer models is one of the main challenges for human hurricane forecasters.

One of the main points of Landstrike was that forecasting the landfall of hurricanes along the U.S. Atlantic coastline is far more difficult than on the Gulf Coast. The angle at which storms approach the East Coast, and their typically greater speed, give residents of Atlantic communities much less time to prepare. (Forecasters were able to predict Hurricane Katrina's landfall near New Orleans nearly four days in advance--not that New Orleanians took advantage of the notice.)

If Earl does take a slightly more westerly turn, it's likely that the communities most directly affected will have, at most, 36 hours notice, and even then the likely target area will be huge, containing many millions of people. Evacuation, other than from literally beachfront communities, is not a viable option (imagine trying to evacuate New York or Boston on 36 hours notice).

Keep an eye on Earl. Hurricanes like this have a habit of surprising us in real life, not just in entertaining fiction!

So Long Lisbeth Salander

So sad. We just finished reading "The Girl Who Kicked The Hornet's Nest," the final installment in Stieg Larsson's trilogy of wildly best-selling novels from Sweden. Having spent most of the summer enjoying the exploits of spunky Lisbeth Salander, we now have a big empty spot in our reading schedule.

Even sadder is that with Larsson having died shortly after finishing the trilogy, we probably won't be hearing anything new from Salander, other than wild speculation and debate over who should play her in the upcoming American version of movies based on the books. (Our vote: Nathalie Portman.) (Larsson did complete most of a fourth manuscript, so maybe we'll one day have a further visit from Lisbeth.)

So, what can we do with the rest of our summer?

"Restrepo"--Tough To Follow

We recently saw "Restrepo," a documentary film produced by Sebastian Junger (of Perfect Storm fame), which follows a company of American soldiers stationed in the Korengal Valley in Afghanistan.

We'd have a hard time recommending the documentary unless you've also read Junger's recent companion book, "War," which in turn expanded on a series of Vanity Fair dispatches from 2008-09. Even then, it's tough to sit through.

The book is good, capturing the day-to-day life of American foot soldiers fighting, and sometimes dying--on an almost daily basis--at the furthest extension of western military power into that remote region of the world. It certainly makes you wonder what, exactly, we're trying to do in Afghanistan and whether the mission is worth it.

An important part of the book is probing the lingering social/emotional damage done to these young soldiers by their service.

Unfortunately, the movie, which has a limited release in theaters, is hard to watch. It's very raw footage, with almost no narration, and no other props of a good documentary--no maps, no context, nothing. For those who've read the book, it does put faces on the soldiers you meet while reading, but that's about it. For those who haven't read the book, like our friend, it was very confusing.

It's also difficult to watch because much of the action takes place with a handheld camera during combat operations, resulting in a lot of jerking and bouncing around. By the end, we were getting pretty queasy, like with motion sickness.

Another problem is that in combat, a camera person needs to keep his or head down. So we see lots of scenes of American soldiers firing loud, heavy-caliber weapons, but we never see who, or what, they're shooting at. The sense you get, however, is that they're firing large quantities of ammunition and ordnance at a very small number of enemy fighters, many of whom are local young men paid a few dollars by the Taliban to take potshots at the Americans.

It is a dangerous game, however, as we do see wounded, and killed, American soldiers. And occasionally some Afghans as well.

Raw film alone does not a good movie make, however. The footage shown in Restrepo* would best be used as the heart of a good television documentary, with a narrator, some maps, and some other visual and verbal aids to telling a story.

We can't imagine that Junger would have a very good book if he just transcribed a bunch of interviews with soldiers and stitched them together as separate chapters. Yet, that's the feel of the movie--it feels unfinished, lazy even.

So, read the book. And hope the film footage shows up later in a better edited, more finished format that tells a real story.

*The film is called Restrepo in honor of Army medic, Juan Restrepo, who was killed during one of the frequent firefights in the Korengal Valley, and for whom one of the forward operating posts manned by the Americans was later named.

Storms of my Grandchildren

Weatherunderground's Jeff Masters has a nice review today of climatologist James Hansen's new book, "Storms Of My Grandchildren" HERE.

Palin, Tea-Partiers To Exempt Pentagon Fraud, Waste and Abuse?

According to today's WSJ, Queen Sarah Palin and her Tea-Bagging allies are under pressure to exempt defense spending from their attacks on the federal government's spending ways.

If they do so, they won't be Tea Partiers. Instead, they'll be Republicans, who traditionally have turned a blind eye to defense spending.

What, you don't think the Pentagon, which spends about a quarter of the U.S. budget, is subject to fraud, waste and abuse? You don't think defense spending contains pork? You don't think there's purely politically motivated spending going on there? You don't think there are corporations making a mint off Pentagon projects?

Think again!!

It's Official: We're In A Drought

Although the big weather focus of late has been on the HEAT, it's also been quite dry.

So dry, in fact, that much of Northern Virginia has now been officially classified into a drought by the denizens of the US Drought Monitor.

Doesn't look like there's much in the way of drought relief on the horizon either. After a fall and winter punctuated by serial coastal storms driven by El Nino conditions, it's now been several months since we've had any true rainy couple of days. We'll get some thunderstorms, but they provide spotty coverage, and the water runs off quickly. Ok for streams, but not great for plants.

Just a couple years ago, many parts of the Southeast endured lengthy severe drought conditions. We fear we're headed back that way. By fall, we may be hoping for the drought-busting remnants of a tropical storm or hurricane to head our way!

!

Committee For A Worse Arlington

Actions speak louder than words.

The so-called "Committee For A Better Arlington" is pushing for a change in the structure of Arlington's County government. We've already explained why the change is unnecessary and would only make things worse.

The Committee's actions, however, bespeak much. To get a referendum on the issue on the November ballot, the Committee needs to submit just over 14,000 petition signatures by July 14. Arlington election officials would then have to scramble to verify the signatures.

Nothing prevents proponents of the referendum from submitting petitions on a rolling basis. So far, however, they haven't presented a single signature, so officials are waiting, bracing to be dumped on at the last second. Of course, that will require bringing in extra personnel. It will cost taxpayers more, and potentially interfere with other work.

Is this really the type of people you want pushing for a "better" government?

Their approach to the petitions is simply further evidence that this is a small group promoting their own very selfish interests--not those of Arlington's general public.

[We think the Committee is delaying the petitions as part of a deliberate strategy. If election officials can't verify the petitions in time, the measure will have to be decided in a special election, rather than in November. Proponents may figure that the small turnout in a special election favors them. Of course, a special election will mean even MORE taxpayer dollars for this ridiculous measure.]